Does Trump's second life mean a second presidential term?

The FBI confirmed an assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump during his campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. The breaking news jolted the world into a state of shock.

The United States last witnessed a similar assassination attempt in US President Ronald Reagan's 1981 shooting – that was more than four decades ago. Dubbed as a "historic" moment by pundits, Saturday reopens America's "dark chapter" of political violence. And perhaps more importantly, this changes a lot of things for America's future. 

The high-stakes 2024 US presidential elections will not only see a convicted felon on the ballot for the first time but it carries a lot of pivotal weight for the world at large, especially in terms of the state of global democracy among other things. 

TBS Infographics

"While the elections in France and the United Kingdom offer a glimmer of hope... The future of democratic governance may ultimately depend on the outcome of America's upcoming presidential election," Chris Patten, Chancellor of Oxford University, recently wrote in the Project Syndicate. 

Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group (a political risk research and consulting firm), suggests that the attempted assassination of Trump could increase his chances of winning the election, highlighting a potential peak in Americans' tolerance for political violence not seen since the Civil War.

Because, Patten argued, this historic election year (globally, more voters than ever in history will head to the polls in at least 64 countries plus the European Union) will give a clearer idea of democratic leaders' ability to convince voters that the system is worth saving. 

Against this backdrop, pivotal is probably an understatement. But it is safe to say that a lot rides on this US election results. 

As the Secret Service hurriedly ushered an injured Trump off the rally stage, it instantly renewed attention to previous attacks on US presidents and candidates, consequent repercussions, Trump's election prospects and, of course, the divisive US politics which led to this historic Saturday.  

Violence begets violence

Perhaps the most startling aspect in all this was that an "assassination" attempt was shocking and at the same time not as unexpected as it should have been. Trump's divisive politics and his "rage rhetoric" have been feeding America's toxic and volatile political climate for many years now. 

Rewind to Trump's inaugural address on 20 January 2017 when the newly-elected President Trump vowed to end "American carnage" portraying the nation as divided and dysfunctional – a problem he claimed only he could solve. Four years later, when his presidency concluded, "Trump left behind an even more polarised America, where thousands died daily from the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy was severely damaged and political violence has surged," Reuters reported.  

Now, for months, politicians, the press and pundits on both sides of the aisle fueled reckless rhetoric. This includes accusations that Trump intended to destroy democracy, unleash "death squads," and cause the disappearance of homosexuals and journalists. 

For years, critics have warned about the dangers of employing rage rhetoric in politics, cautioning that while many dismiss exaggerated claims, others take them seriously. 

Rage can be addictive and contagious, providing a perceived justification for actions that would normally be deemed unacceptable. Following Trump's election, unchecked anger became commonplace, exemplified by incidents like Kathy Griffin's controversial photo with a mock severed head of Trump.

Recently, actress Lea DeLaria urged Biden to take drastic action against Trump, calling it a "**** war" for the country's future, reflecting a heightened sense of urgency and conflict.

Politicians and media figures have frequently likened Trump to historical villains and labelled his supporters in extreme terms. Daniel S Goldman, a Representative from New York in Congress, once described Trump as destructive to democracy, a sentiment echoed by others who warned of global catastrophe if Trump remained unchecked.

While those engaging in such rhetoric likely do not intend to incite violence, they have created an environment conducive to extreme views and actions. The media's response has been uneven, often condemning reckless speech from one side while overlooking similar rhetoric from the other.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's remarks targeting Supreme Court justices exemplify the heated rhetoric, though it's unlikely he intended to provoke violence. Nevertheless, such statements can be interpreted by some as justification for extreme measures.

When the president suggests that upcoming elections could threaten democracy, it can be seen as both a warning and a call to action, especially when coupled with language like "putting Trump in a bullseye."

This isn't new. America's history is marked by periods when political discourse abandoned reason in favour of  'rage rhetoric'. 

The current political climate echoes the contentious 1800 election, where similar rhetoric warned of dire consequences depending on the electoral outcome.

"Federalists and Jeffersonians engaged in similar rage rhetoric. Federalists told citizens that, if [Thomas] Jefferson were elected, 'Murder, robbery, rape, adultery, and incest will be openly taught and practised, the air will be rent with the cries of the distressed, the soil will be soaked with blood, and the nation black with crimes'," wrote George Washington University professor Jonathan Turley in The Hill. 

A harrowing account of the scope of political violence in the United States indeed. 

Meanwhile "Jeffersonians warned that, if [US second president John] Adams were reelected, 'chains, dungeons, transportation, and perhaps the gibbet' awaited citizens and they 'would instantaneously be put to death'," Turley referenced, explaining the depth of political violence at the time. 

Thomas Jefferson won the US election in 1800. 

History riddled with political violence 

Political assassinations have been a part of social reality since the emergence of communal social frameworks, with leaders of tribes, villages and other communities constantly needing to defend their privileged status. 

In the ancient world, assassination played a significant role in the rise and fall of some of the greatest empires. In modern times, political assassinations continue to influence political and social processes, often with dramatic effects. For instance, many argue that the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995 was a major factor in the collapse of the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. 

Similarly, the assassinations of figures such as Martin Luther King Jr and Benazir Bhutto had significant impacts on the success of their political movements and parties following their deaths.

Political assassinations often arise from a combination of political competition restrictions, strong societal polarisation and fragmentation. Countries with deprived political groups, lack of consensual political ethos and homogeneous populations are particularly susceptible. 

Additionally, election periods or times of increased domestic violence heighten this risk. The territorial fragmentation of a country also correlates with an increase in assassinations as opposing groups seek to assert control and legitimacy.

The impacts of political assassinations vary based on the target. Assassinations of heads of state generally lead to a decline in democracy, increased domestic violence and instability, but can sometimes result in economic prosperity if an authoritarian leader is eliminated. 

Opposition leader assassinations typically increase unrest and domestic violence while legislator assassinations often lead to public demonstrations and a decline in government legitimacy. 

Overall, assassinations intensify state fragmentation and undermine the democratic nature​. 

What's next for Trump? 

The attempt on Trump's life changes everything. 

The iconic photograph of Trump's face with spilt blood across his face with his raised his fist in the air while uttering "Fight. Fight. Fight," is likely to impact the election in Trump's favour.  

Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group (a political risk research and consulting firm), suggests that the attempted assassination of Trump could increase his chances of winning the election, highlighting a potential peak in Americans' tolerance for political violence not seen since the Civil War.

The reported assassination attempt took place against a backdrop of intense polarisation in the country, where many Americans believe that their political adversaries are actively undermining US democracy, as stated in a video shared on X, formerly known as Twitter. 

"This is the worst sort of event that can happen in that environment, and I deeply worry that this presages much more political violence and social instability to come," Bremmer expressed, cautioning that similar events in other nations have often led to unfavourable outcomes in the past.

In the short term, Bremmer said the image of Trump's blood-streaked face and fist in the air would contrast him dramatically with President Joe Biden, who was already trailing behind Trump with 40% support among the registered voters whereas the former president leads with  44% support, according to Pew Research Center. 

Following President Joe Biden's poor performance in the 27 June debate, the American voters' concerns about Biden's mental acuity, though not new, have intensified after Biden mistakenly called the President of Ukraine 'President Putin' while introducing Volodymyr Zelensky to the audience at a press conference during the NATO Summit.

When the Biden candidacy already faces enormous challenges, a bloodied Trump with a raised fist – the most coveted photo for any politician's career – could be gravely damaging for the Biden campaign. 

Indeed, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced minutes after the shooting that he was endorsing Trump, saying the "Last time America had a candidate this tough was Theodore Roosevelt." In another tweet, he wrote, " I fully endorse President Trump."

Presidents and prime ministers across the world have expressed their support for former United States President Donald Trump and spoken out against political violence following an assassination attempt. This could be the wave that Trump can use to surf into a political victory.