2024 US election: What does the 'greatest show' have in store for the world?

By this time today, voters in the United States of America will have decided on their president for the next four years. Will it be the first female president or the second term for the most controversial president in recent memories? 

Nationally, Harris holds a slim one-point lead over Trump — 48% to 47% — well within most polls' margin of error, with battleground states still locked in a close race.

In this highly polarised landscape, marked by Trump's threats of retribution, Harris's accusations of fascism and racism, and both candidates warning that democracy itself is at stake, when the 'greatest country on earth' goes to such divided polls, it is only natural for the election to become the greatest show on earth. 

But what fireworks does this show have in store for the world?

Genocide in Gaza may bring about ruin for Democrats

Prominent journalist Mehdi Hasan recently released a video on YouTube, asking Kamala Harris and the Democrats not to blame the Muslims if Trump wins.  

The Palestine issue has emerged as a critical factor in the election, especially for the Democratic voter base, which includes large Muslim-American and Arab-American communities. This constituency has traditionally supported Democratic candidates, but the party's handling of the Gaza crisis has caused a shift in sentiment. 

Many Muslim voters are now considering a "protest vote" for Jill Stein.

In a recent opinion piece, Bernie Sanders has appealed to the anti-genocide voters of the US to choose Kamala over Trump, as she is the lesser of two evils. 

He wrote, "How can I vote for Kamala Harris if she is supporting this terrible war... And that is that even on this issue, Donald Trump and his rightwing friends are worse… After Harris wins we will, together, do everything we can to change US policy toward Netanyahu — including an immediate ceasefire, the return of all hostages, a surge of massive humanitarian aid, the stopping of settler attacks on the West Bank, and the rebuilding of Gaza for the Palestinian people.

"And let me be clear. We will have, in my view, a much better chance of changing US policy with Harris than with Trump, who is extremely close to Netanyahu and sees him as a like-minded, rightwing extremist ally." 

It does sound like the Democrats are on their last leg on the Palestinian issue. And as his op-ed has perfectly illustrated, Trump's policies are likely to be more pro-Israel.

Trump's unpredictable foreign policy concerning for allies

Trump's foreign policy stance has caused deep concerns among America's traditional allies. In his first term, he locked horns with NATO, pushed Japan and South Korea for more money, and let Israel set up an embassy in Jerusalem, which alienated some of the Middle Eastern allies.  

So, this time, NATO members have expressed growing unease, fearing that a Trump victory could weaken the alliance and leave Europe more vulnerable to Russian aggression. Trump's ambiguous approach to NATO commitments, including potential reductions in US military presence in Europe, could disrupt the security framework that has been in place since World War II. 

European diplomats, wary of Trump's isolationist tendencies, are already seeking ways to "Trump-proof" their long-term defence strategies in anticipation of a more unpredictable US stance.

Trump's approach could see a reduction in US commitments to international institutions like the UN, WTO, and NATO, which have played central roles in global governance. 

Michael Hirsh, writing for Foreign Policy, notes that the stakes of this election could not be higher, as Trump's vision of a more insular, nationalist America contrasts sharply with Harris's commitment to upholding a liberal, rules-based international system.

Meanwhile, Trump's alignment with nationalist policies is reflected in his approach toward Latin America. His rhetoric, which has often targeted immigrants and Latin American nations, underscores a harsh stance that could lead to increased deportations, strict border policies, and potential military action against Mexican drug cartels, impacting trade and security dynamics in the region. 

He has pledged to recall thousands of American troops from overseas and station them along the US border with Mexico. He has explored using troops for domestic policy priorities such as deportations and confronting civil unrest. Trump has also talked about weeding out military officers who are ideologically opposed to him.

Trump's foreign policy agenda, which seeks to "right-size" America's role in the world, could create a power vacuum in regions traditionally under US influence. His rhetoric often resonates with voters frustrated by "endless wars," and he has pledged to avoid new military interventions. 

Analysts warn that Trump's rhetoric aligns with nationalist movements that seek to diminish America's role as a global leader. In a Project Syndicate article, Joseph Nye, a respected foreign policy scholar, argues that Trump's vision of "America First" might leave allies vulnerable and adversaries emboldened, creating a geopolitical environment that could weaken democratic governance worldwide.

What about Russia, China and Iran? 

Trump's return to power could embolden authoritarian regimes and weaken democratic movements worldwide. Some fear that his disregard for traditional alliances could empower rivals like Russia and China to exert greater influence in regions where US support has historically countered their ambitions. 

However, a second Trump term would likely intensify US-China rivalry, with policies aiming to counter China's influence globally, which he began during his first term. Trump's "America First" stance would focus on trade restrictions and technological decoupling. 

This would heighten China's emphasis on self-reliance and potentially escalate tensions in the South China Sea. The Trump administration could also strengthen ties with regional allies to counter China's influence, creating a highly competitive environment between the two powers​. 

Under Harris, the US is expected to continue a more predictable but firm approach to China, focusing on competition in technology, trade, and human rights issues. 

While Harris would likely maintain some restrictions on Chinese technology, she may avoid escalating military tensions, promoting stable relations and coalition-building in the Indo-Pacific. This approach would aim to contain rather than directly confront China​. But either way, China does not have much hope for an improved relationship. 

One of the doomed decisions for Joe Biden was going knee-deep in the Ukraine War, which resulted in widespread inflation and dissatisfaction across the country. So, Trump has hinted at reducing US involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which would benefit Moscow by decreasing the flow of military aid to Ukraine. 

However, this stance could lead to a volatile geopolitical landscape, as Trump's unpredictable policies might create both opportunities and risks for Russia. Moscow might also explore leveraging Trump's anti-China sentiment by potentially driving a wedge between Washington and Beijing

Harris would likely extend Biden's support for Ukraine, maintaining sanctions and providing military aid. Her approach might be more predictable than Trump's, offering stability in US-Russia relations. 

However, this predictability would mean continued pressure on Moscow, as Harris is expected to reinforce NATO's role and support European allies. Russia could anticipate little change in the adversarial stance of US policy​. 

Trump's return could revive the "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, reinstating sanctions to curb Tehran's nuclear program and regional influence. This could further isolate Iran economically but might also push Iran closer to China and Russia for strategic alliances and economic relief. 

Harris's administration would likely pursue a balanced approach towards Iran, possibly exploring diplomatic avenues to revive the nuclear agreement while enforcing targeted sanctions on its nuclear program. But Iran may still come under pressure due to her close ties with Israel. 

Will South Asia see a 'reset'? 

Trump has been a chum of Indian Prime Minister Narendea Modi for a while now.  With Trump in office, India could experience closer bilateral ties, driven by shared concerns about China. India's role in the Indo-Pacific would likely be a cornerstone of Trump's policy. 

Some speculate that under a Trump administration, India may again try to regain regional dominance, which they have recently lost.

This policy, coupled with Trump's disregard for allies, may see less support for the interim government of Bangladesh, which has enjoyed close cooperation during the Biden administration. 

Under Harris, Bangladesh could see continuity in US support, especially in areas of economic development, democratic reforms, and governance. This administration would likely address Bangladesh's human rights issues while also offering development aid that encourages stability and growth. Harris's approach would focus on collaborative ties, potentially reducing pressure on Bangladesh to limit its ties with China​. 

The uncertain future of global alliances

The election's outcome will also determine the future of global alliances. Harris has emphasised the importance of maintaining alliances, viewing them as critical to countering authoritarianism and promoting stability. 

Her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, although lacking in foreign policy experience, shares this vision of America's role as a stabilising force. Together, they advocate for a cooperative approach to tackle issues like climate change, human rights, and regional security. 

In contrast, Trump's approach suggests a realignment that may see alliances weakened or recalibrated to prioritise transactional relationships over mutual commitments. And about his running mate, JD Vance, the less is said, the better. 

On paper, Kamala Harris represents a continuation of multilateralism, alliance-building, and cooperation, with a focus on human rights and environmental sustainability. 

Trump, on the other hand, offers a vision of a more insular America, prioritising domestic concerns over international commitments and reshaping alliances to reflect transactional interests.

In a world marred by rising conflicts, violence, and authoritarianism, a lot hinges upon the 5 November election. 

Bill Clinton once said, "There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America." 

Let's hope he is right.