A super El Niño could push food, health and global economy to the brink

Even before the next powerful El Niño fully forms, its impacts might already be spreading through fields, ports, reservoirs, forests, and homes. 

A failed monsoon, a stranded vessel near a key shipping route, a hydropower shortage in Africa, a heatwave in a crowded city, or a farmer using less fertiliser because prices have risen could seem like separate crises. 

But under a strong, or "Super", El Niño, they can become part of one global chain reaction.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a natural climate pattern that shifts between El Niño and La Niña every two to seven years. 

La Niña usually cools global temperatures. El Niño does the opposite, warming the planet's surface and disturbing rainfall patterns across continents. It can bring floods to usually dry regions while triggering droughts in places that depend on seasonal rains.

Scientists use the term "Super El Niño" for a very strong event in which Pacific sea surface temperatures rise more than 2°C above average. Weakened easterlies allow warm waters to spread across the central and eastern Pacific, changing weather patterns worldwide. 

The World Meteorological Organisation has projected warmer sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific as early as May to July 2026, with a 60% risk of El Niño developing by summer.

Though El Niño is a natural cycle, climate change makes its effects more dangerous. A warmer planet means drought dries soils faster, heatwaves last longer, rainfall becomes more intense, and forests burn more easily. 

As Mike Badzmierowski, manager for US Agricultural Policy, told The Guardian, "If a strong to very strong El Niño does occur, it may differ from past events in one very important way: It would be happening in a hotter world."

In the past, countries could often treat El Niño as a temporary disruption. Today, it will arrive in a world already strained by high food prices, energy insecurity, trade tensions, conflict, debt and climate extremes. The event will not act alone. It will interact with existing crises and make them harder to manage. 

For poorer communities, the danger is not only bad weather, rather bad weather arriving when savings are low, public services are weak, and supply chains are fragile.

The first major risk is food. Wheat, rice, maize and soybeans provide more than 60% of the world's calories. El Niño can improve harvests in some regions while damaging them in others. 

"Some places benefit, some are harmed, and the global average effect can hide severe local impacts," Badzmierowski says. That means global production figures may look manageable while individual countries or communities face serious shortages.

Graphics: TBS

South Asia, Southeast Asia and Australia face particular drought risks. A weaker South Asian monsoon would threaten agriculture in a region where farming still supports millions of jobs and livelihoods. 

Rain-fed farmers are especially vulnerable because they have limited irrigation and fewer financial buffers. In Thailand and Vietnam, two of the world's biggest rice exporters, weaker rainfall could reduce rice output and raise prices for import-dependent countries such as the Philippines, where rice is central to daily diets.

These risks are made worse by disruptions to fertiliser, fuel and shipping linked to conflict in the Middle East and pressure around the Strait of Hormuz. If fertiliser becomes expensive or scarce, farmers may plant less or apply less, weakening yields of rice, cotton and soybeans. 

Fuel disruptions can also raise the cost of irrigation, transport and food processing. "A potentially historic El Niño would layer drought, heat or flooding risks onto an already fragile system," Badzmierowski warns.

Australia's wheat exports could also fall if rainfall drops, putting pressure on Asian buyers. Southern Africa may see lower maize production, increasing the risk of food insecurity in countries where maize is a staple. 

Parts of East Africa, however, could benefit from more rain, showing how uneven El Niño's effects can be. In the Americas, the picture is also mixed: soybean yields may improve in the US, Argentina and Brazil, but coffee-growing regions near the equator may suffer from heat and dry conditions, threatening small farmers who depend on a single cash crop.

Liz Saccoccia, Water Security Lead at the World Resources Institute, told The Guardian, "El Niño can bring both scarcity and excess. Drought could affect the Caribbean, Central America, northern Brazil, India, southern Africa, Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia, reducing water supplies and putting pressure on reservoirs and groundwater." 

This would affect not only farms, but also cities, factories and power plants that rely on stable water flows.

At the same time, heavier rainfall may hit the southern US, Peru, Ecuador, East Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia, raising flood risks. Flooding can damage roads, homes, crops and sanitation systems. 

In the past, countries could often treat El Niño as a temporary disruption. Today, it will arrive in a world already strained by high food prices, energy insecurity, trade tensions, conflict, debt and climate extremes. The event will not act alone. It will interact with existing crises and make them even harder to manage.

It can also contaminate drinking water and increase the spread of water-borne diseases. In fragile urban areas, heavy rain can quickly become a public health emergency.

More rain does not always mean more usable water. When rainfall comes in short, intense bursts, it often runs off the surface instead of soaking into soil and aquifers. Longer dry spells then worsen soil moisture loss. 

This means even places receiving above-average rainfall may not become more secure if water cannot be stored, absorbed or managed properly.

Energy systems are also exposed. Heatwaves increase electricity demand for cooling and can push grids to the edge. In India, El Niño-linked heat is expected to raise coal-fired power generation by 10% year on year. 

Since coal supplies about 70% of India's electricity and around 55% of China's, extreme heat could slow the clean energy transition. Governments may turn to fossil fuels to prevent blackouts, even as emissions need to fall.

Hydropower is vulnerable too. Drought can reduce river flows, while floods can damage infrastructure. Zambia and Zimbabwe have previously seen El Niño drought conditions reduce generation at Kariba Dam. 

Colombia, which relies heavily on hydropower, faced reduced generation, higher electricity prices and blackout risks during the 2015-16 El Niño. When hydropower fails, countries often shift to costlier fossil-fuel generation, increasing both electricity bills and emissions.

Critical mineral supply chains may also feel the strain. Indonesia's nickel production, important for steel and clean technologies, can be affected by rainfall shortages and energy constraints. 

In Chile, heavy rain linked to El Niño can obstruct access to mountainous copper mining regions. These disruptions matter because copper and nickel are essential for grids, batteries, electric vehicles and renewable energy systems.

Trade routes may become chokepoints of their own. Previous El Niño-related drought lowered water levels in the Panama Canal, forcing lower vessel weight limits and higher surcharges. 

If other routes such as the Suez Canal or Strait of Hormuz are also disrupted, just-in-time supply chains could face serious delays and higher costs. For countries dependent on imported food, fuel or fertiliser, higher shipping costs can quickly become higher consumer prices.

Small-island developing states are especially vulnerable because they rely heavily on imported goods and have fewer alternative transport options. Even modest increases in shipping costs can raise food and energy prices, putting pressure on households and public budgets.

The health effects may be the most personal. Heatwaves reduce labour productivity, increase cooling costs and raise the risk of illness. Outdoor workers in agriculture and construction are among the most exposed. 

In cities such as New Delhi, heat-season temperatures often exceed 40C, creating risks of dehydration, kidney stress, heat exhaustion, heatstroke and long-term cardiovascular strain. When heat combines with poor housing, power cuts and weak healthcare access, it becomes both a medical and livelihood crisis.

Forests face rising danger as well. El Niño can reduce rainfall and raise temperatures, making fires more likely. In South America, dry conditions can leave the Amazon more vulnerable during the following fire season. 

Brazil's 2016 and 2024 fire seasons each burned more than 2.3 million hectares of forest, far above the long-term average. Because the Amazon is not well adapted to fire, the worst effects may appear after El Niño itself, possibly in late 2027.

Fisheries can also suffer. El Niño suppresses cool-water upwelling in parts of the Pacific, reducing nutrients for phytoplankton. This affects small fish such as anchovies and sardines, while larger fish migrate elsewhere. Fishing communities from California and Mexico to Peru, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea and Micronesia may see lower catches and incomes.

These pressures can also feed political instability. Drought, harvest failure, high food prices and unequal access to water or land can deepen existing tensions, especially in vulnerable tropical countries. Climate shocks do not automatically cause conflict, but they can worsen grievances where governance is weak and resources are already contested.

The response must begin before the shock. Parametric insurance can release funds when weather thresholds are crossed, helping communities prepare before losses are fully visible. 

Peru has piloted El Niño insurance, and Colombia has developed a similar tool for smallholder coffee farmers. But insurance is not enough. It can miss losses that fall outside fixed thresholds, and repeated climate shocks can make payouts more frequent and costly.

Practical adaptation is essential: repairing irrigation, strengthening flood defences, distributing drought-resilient seeds, improving heat and flood warning systems, protecting workers, investing in resilient ports, and combining green and grey infrastructure in cities. 

The FAO estimates that every $1 invested in anticipatory action can generate $7 in avoided losses and added benefits. That makes early action not only a humanitarian duty, but also an economic strategy.

A Super El Niño would not create the world's vulnerabilities. It would expose and intensify them. It would show how climate, food, fuel, water, forests, health and trade are now connected. 

The tools to reduce the danger already exist: cleaner energy, resilient agriculture, early warning systems, stronger infrastructure, lower deforestation and better protection for workers and farmers. The harder question is whether governments and markets will act before Pacific warming becomes another global bill paid mainly by the poor.