Why an attack on Bushehr nuclear plant would be catastrophic for the Gulf

The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, Iran's only operating nuclear facility, has reportedly been attacked multiple times since a war involving the United States and Israel began on February 28, 2026. The most recent strike on April 4 reportedly hit near the site, killing a security guard and damaging a nearby structure.

Experts and officials say a direct strike on the reactor could have consequences extending across the Gulf region, particularly due to risks of radioactive release, water contamination, and disruption of critical infrastructure, says Al Jazeera.

Risk of radioactive release

A strike on reactor systems or spent fuel storage could release radioactive isotopes such as Caesium-137 into the environment. These materials can spread through air and water, contaminating soil, food supplies, and marine ecosystems over long periods.

Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, has warned that such an incident could trigger a "regional catastrophe" and result in a very high release of radioactivity with "great consequences" beyond Iran's borders. He has repeatedly called for "maximum restraint" to avoid a nuclear incident.

Because the Persian Gulf is relatively shallow and enclosed, contamination could persist and concentrate, affecting marine life and coastal environments for decades.

Impact on desalination and water security

Gulf countries rely heavily on desalination for drinking water due to limited freshwater resources. These facilities are generally not designed to remove radioactive contaminants.

Abbas Araghchi criticized what he described as a lack of concern over the plant's safety, stating, "Radioactive fallout will end life in GCC capitals, not Tehran." He also pointed to perceived inconsistencies in international responses, asking, "Remember the Western outrage about hostilities near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine?"

Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani said the plant affects "all of us," and following a national simulation warned that the sea would be "entirely contaminated," leaving the country to "run out of water in three days." He added, "No water, no fish, nothing… no life."

Analysts say that once an "appreciable amount" of radioactivity enters seawater, desalination becomes unviable. Alan Eyre of the Middle East Institute said, "More serious is the threat of radioactive material in the water because once you get an appreciable amount of radioactivity in the water, that precludes desalination," adding that such contamination would "halt desalination altogether."

Cooling systems and meltdown risk

The IAEA has also warned that damage to power infrastructure supplying the plant could disrupt cooling systems. Without adequate cooling, a reactor could overheat, potentially leading to a meltdown and requiring large-scale evacuation beyond Iran's borders.

Legal and international frameworks

Civilian nuclear facilities are protected under international humanitarian law. Under the Geneva Conventions, installations containing dangerous forces, including nuclear power plants, are shielded from attack due to the potential for widespread civilian harm.

The principle of distinction requires parties to differentiate between civilian infrastructure and military targets. Targeting a facility like Bushehr, which provides electricity for civilian use, may be considered a war crime if it results in extensive environmental damage or loss of life.

The IAEA also maintains guidelines emphasizing the protection of nuclear facilities' physical integrity, the safety of personnel, and the need to maintain off-site power, cooling systems, and radiation monitoring capabilities.

Regional dependence and simulation findings

Gulf states such as Qatar rely almost entirely on desalinated seawater. A simulation conducted by Qatari authorities found that contamination following an attack on Bushehr could render seawater unusable for desalination.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani warned that such contamination would lead to rapid depletion of water supplies, reinforcing concerns that a nuclear incident could quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis across multiple countries.

International response

Iranian officials have pointed to differences in international reactions to nuclear facility incidents. Araghchi contrasted the situation with global responses to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in 2022, which prompted emergency UN meetings and widespread condemnation.

While the United Nations and IAEA have consistently called for restraint in both contexts, public responses to the Bushehr strikes have been more limited, according to the sources cited by Iranian officials. Russia, which has personnel at the Bushehr site, has condemned the attacks and expressed concern.

Experts and international agencies continue to warn that any direct strike on Bushehr could trigger cascading consequences, from radioactive contamination to disruption of desalination systems that sustain much of the Gulf's population. The combination of environmental, infrastructure, and legal risks has made the plant a focal point in discussions about nuclear safety in conflict zones.