What's behind Putin's first visit to India since the Ukraine war?
The comes at a moment of strained ties between Washington and New Delhi, after the United States imposed tariffs and threatened sanctions over India’s increased purchases of discounted Russian crude
Russian President Vladimir Putin's trip to India marks his first visit since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than four years ago.
It comes at a moment of strained ties between Washington and New Delhi, after the United States imposed tariffs and threatened sanctions over India's increased purchases of discounted Russian crude, says Al Jazeera.
The visit highlights India's long-running effort to maintain strategic autonomy. Although India has deepened security cooperation with the US in recent years, it also has a decades-old partnership with Russia dating back to the Soviet era.
Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel
What's on the agenda?
Putin is scheduled to arrive on Thursday evening for a private dinner with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His official programme on Friday includes:
- A guard of honour at Rashtrapati Bhavan
- A meeting with President Droupadi Murmu
- A visit to the Mahatma Gandhi memorial at Raj Ghat
- The annual summit with Modi at Hyderabad House
Putin will be accompanied by Defence Minister Andrei Belousov and executives from state arms exporter Rosoboronexport and oil companies Rosneft and Gazprom Neft.
Analysts say Moscow is seeking diplomatic visibility from the trip to show that it is not isolated internationally.
How do defence ties factor in?
Defence cooperation remains the most stable pillar of the relationship.
- Russia is still India's largest arms supplier, accounting for about 36% of recent imports and more than 60% of India's current arsenal.
- India is looking to buy more S-400 air defence systems, which its air force chief has previously described as a "game changer" during the air conflict with Pakistan.
- Russia hopes to promote its Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets to India.
What's happening on energy?
Energy trade expanded rapidly after the Ukraine war, with India becoming the second-largest buyer of Russian crude. Imports rose by more than 2,000% and helped stabilise global markets.
Recent developments have begun to reverse this trend:
- The US imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods in response to India's Russian oil purchases.
- Sanctions on Russian firms such as Rosneft and Lukoil prompted Reliance, India's largest private refiner, to halt exports of products made from Russian crude.
As a result, India's Russian oil imports are expected to fall to their lowest level in three years.
What about trade more broadly?
Bilateral trade has climbed from about $10 billion to nearly $69 billion this year, driven mainly by discounted Russian oil. But Indian exports remain around $5 billion, leaving New Delhi with a trade deficit of roughly $64 billion.
With oil purchases likely to decline, the stated goal of reaching $100 billion in trade by 2030 appears increasingly unrealistic.
What are the two sides exploring next?
Labour mobility is emerging as a potential growth area. Russia expects a shortage of 3.1 million workers by 2030 and is seeking to diversify labour sources beyond Central Asia. India, with a large working-age population, is seen as a possible partner.
What challenges does India face?
India is navigating overlapping negotiations with the US, the European Union, and the Eurasian Economic Union. Expanding ties with one risks complications with others, particularly amid the geopolitical fallout of the Ukraine war.
Analysts say the most stabilising factor for India's balancing act would be a resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which currently shapes many of the pressures surrounding India's foreign policy choices.
