How real is a coup threat against Russia's president?

Increased security around Vladimir Putin and a scaling back of public appearances have given rise to suspicions of a coup or assassination attempt. Yet some observers remain sceptical.

The Kremlin has radically increased security around Russian president Vladimir Putin, apparently due to growing fears of assassination or a coup. That is according to a report from an unnamed European intelligence agency that was cited by independent Russian investigative media outlet iStories or Important Stories, as well as US broadcaster CNN and UK newspaper the Financial Times.

The publication of these reports has divided Russia observers. Some believe that such a scenario, including threats to Putin, is likely. Successful operations conducted by the Ukrainian secret service inside and outside Russia make it believable, they argue. But others think that such a scenario is highly implausible and see the leaked information as another part of an ongoing campaign to destabilise the Russian leadership system.

But what most experts are certain of is that Putin himself is becoming more worried about his own security, and that economic problems and growing pressure from security forces on technocrats are exacerbating tensions among Russian elites.

Destabilising actor

In the leaked report, Russia's former defence minister Sergei Shoigu, now secretary of Russia's security council, is seen as a potentially destabilising actor. While Shoigu has lost much of his former influence, he still has a lot of power in the military and poses a threat to Putin, Roman Anin, the Russian investigative journalist who founded iStories, explains. The media outlet is based in Riga, Latvia.

Anin believes that in Russia there are growing tensions within state security organs and the "siloviki", or "securocrat", clans that hold much of the power in Russia.

UK newspaper The Guardian describes the "siloviki" as "the Russian security men who have surrounded [Putin], many of whom served in the KGB and have maintained conservative, often conspiratorial political views." Putin's role as the mediator between all these groups has weakened and so tensions have grown, Anin argued.

"For many years, Shoigu was the leader of an extremely influential clan," he told DW. "As defence minister and head of the disaster relief ministry, he managed to unite a large number of people under his command and involve them in corrupt networks. They adhere to a mafia-like code."

Shoigu and Putin were close friends for years and even took holidays together. Pictures distributed by the Kremlin show them gathering mushrooms or fishing together in the Russian wilderness. For 12 years under Putin, Shoigu led the Russian Ministry for Emergency Situations until 2012, when Putin named him defence minister. In 2024, he was fired from that job and replaced by Andrei Belousov. Observers suggest that Shoigu fell out of favour because of failures in the Ukraine war.

So far, he has avoided the fate that has befallen other high-ranking figures close to Putin, who have fallen out of his favour.

The most recent incident involved former deputy defence minister Ruslan Tsalikov, who was arrested and accused of founding a criminal organisation whose members allegedly embezzled public funds and engaged in bribery between 2017 and 2024. Another deputy defence minister, Timur Ivanov, was arrested in 2024 and sentenced to 13 years in a similar case. Pavel Popov, who held a similar position, was sentenced to 19 years for embezzlement; and proceedings are ongoing against Dmitry Bulgakov, another deputy defence minister accused of corruption.

Security tightened

As the unnamed European spy agency said, Putin now fears an assassination attempt organised by somebody within those elite circles, potentially committed using a drone. In April, VCHK-OGPU, a Telegram channel run by an anonymous Russian military blogger that's become known for publishing supposed data breaches from Russian security agencies, posted that the Kremlin feared danger from within. Among other aspects, there were concerns about a possible drone attack steered from inside Russia.

Because Russian intelligence services thought it might be too dangerous, the traditional Russian military parade on 9 May, Victory Day, usually held in Moscow's Red Square, has been scaled back significantly. At one stage, Putin was apparently considering cancelling it altogether.

In Moscow, security has been tightened in general, with communications disrupted in some parts of the Russian capital as well as mobile electronic warfare systems deployed in the centre — which can be used to disrupt drone flights. Security is also being increased at the Kremlin itself.

Putin is genuinely concerned for his own safety, political analyst Ekaterina Schulmann confirmed on her own Telegram channel. That's why the Victory Day parade was scaled back and why Putin has reduced his public appearances.

"When security is the top priority, the safest thing to do is not to appear anywhere," she said.

There are also concerns because of the latest Ukrainian assassination attempts on the lives of Russian generals, added Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter turned political analyst, who for his safety now lives outside Russia. "Security is more important right now than his image," he told DW.

Gallyamov says that he too had noticed how internal conflicts inside Russia's elite military-political circles are worsening and how some clans within that milieu are acting more independently — that is, without the Kremlin's say-so, which they would have needed before.

But in his opinion, the various groups are avoiding open confrontation and are simply waiting to adapt to circumstances. Gallyamov isn't sure that Shoigu's role is that large either, because he sees the former defence minister as a much weakened actor without the necessary resources or support.

Schulmann also noted that in stories about the leaked security report, neither the Financial Times nor CNN talked about any "conspiracy led by Shoigu".

Meanwhile Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian politics who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, said talk of a coup "may be a deliberate deception".

"The sudden spate of news stories reporting that a conveniently anonymous 'European intelligence agency' claims that the Kremlin fears a coup looks suspiciously more like a psyop meant to generate paranoia in the Russian elite than a serious assessment," Galeotti wrote in a commentary for British magazine The Spectator this week.

He too believes Shoigu lacks the authority and trust inside leadership circles to attempt a coup.

Rival systems of patronage

Additionally, the ruling elites are not a uniform group with uniform interests, Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser at the Central Bank of Russia and political scientist, said during an interview on Carnegie Politika, a platform run by the Carnegie Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies, a think tank in Berlin.

That is the reason why there hasn't been any meaningful attempt at a coup against Putin as yet. The exception to that was the revolt by Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the militia group Wagner, in June 2023.

Prokopenko describes Putin's power hierarchy as like pyramids, with each built up around an individual patron, who is linked to the distribution of resources and access to decision-making in Russia. The patrons lack coordination with one another, which means it's difficult for them to act as a collective. And as long as the patrons get more from Putin than they could without him, then they have no incentive to act against him, Prokopenko explained.

However, she doesn't rule out that the situation could change if resources become scarce. Thanks to war and international sanctions, "the cake" available to Russia's elite has become smaller. Often, resources are sent to the military or military-associated industries instead.

All of this increases rivalries and competition between the various clans, and destabilises the system they're working in. According to Prokopenko, the different groups are competing for Putin's interest and attention so that they can get a larger share of the existing cake.

In that sense, the fight isn't really aimed at changing the system, she explained. It's more a fight for resources and a place at the decision-makers' table, a dynamic from which Putin benefits. It divides Russia's ruling elites, forces them to keep proving their loyalty, and reminds them that whatever property and rights they have today has nothing to do with the rule of law. It all depends on the Kremlin's goodwill.