Global oil market turmoil and US’ Russia sanctions push: What it means for Bangladesh
BPC Chairman Md Amin Ul Ahsan told The Business Standard that these contracts are usually signed for six months to one year
Global oil prices could rise if a proposed US sanctions bill targeting countries that buy Russian energy is passed by US Congress, analysts have warned, amid concerns of fresh volatility in the international energy market.
The proposed legislation, officially titled the "Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025" and also known as the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill, seeks to discourage major economies such as India, China and Brazil from purchasing Russian oil.
Experts say if these large economies are forced to reduce or halt imports from Russia, demand for oil from the Middle East would rise sharply, potentially driving up prices and destabilising the global market.
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US President Donald Trump has expressed support for the bill, which proposes imposing tariffs of up to 500% on countries accused of continuing to buy Russian oil and uranium.
US Senator Lindsey Graham confirmed the development in a statement today.
"This bill will allow President Trump to punish those countries who buy cheap Russian oil, fueling Putin's war machine," Graham said in the statement, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"This bill would give President Trump tremendous leverage against countries like China, India and Brazil to incentivise them to stop buying the cheap Russian oil that provides the financing for Putin's bloodbath against Ukraine."
If passed, Graham's Sanctioning Russia Act, drafted with Democrat Richard Blumenthal, would authorise the US president to levy punitive tariffs on countries that "knowingly purchase Russian oil or uranium and thereby fuel Russian President Vladimir Putin's war machine".
Impact on major importers
India is the world's second-largest oil importer. After the Russia-Ukraine war began, many countries stopped buying Russian oil due to US-led sanctions. In response, Russia sharply cut prices to retain buyers.
India continued importing Russian oil despite the sanctions. According to media reports, India's oil imports from Russia have risen by around 33%. Imports by China and Brazil from Russia have also increased during the same period.
Analysts say restricting these purchases could significantly alter global supply-demand dynamics, increasing pressure on alternative oil-producing regions.
Bangladesh unlikely to face immediate impact
Despite concerns over global volatility, officials and experts believe Bangladesh's fuel oil imports will not be negatively affected in the near term.
Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC), the country's sole state-owned fuel importer, procures petroleum through two main channels – government-to-government (G2G) agreements and international tenders.
BPC Chairman Md Amin Ul Ahsan told The Business Standard that these contracts are usually signed for six months to one year.
"Contracts and tenders for Bangladesh's fuel imports for 2026 have already been finalised," he said. "Some G2G agreements and tenders cover supplies until December, while some are until June 2026."
As a result, he said, the current global uncertainty would not affect Bangladesh's fuel oil imports in 2026.
Price risks outside long-term contracts
Energy expert Professor Badrul Imam said oil prices are closely linked to global political developments and policy decisions by influential countries.
"Oil prices often fluctuate due to geopolitical actions. What is happening now will also have an impact on the global oil market," he said, adding that it was too early to predict whether prices would rise or fall.
He noted that fuel imported under long-term contracts would likely see little price change, but warned that oil purchased outside such agreements could become more expensive.
On 6 January, the government's advisory committee on public procurement approved a BPC proposal to import 13.8 lakh tonnes of refined fuel oil for the first half of 2026 (January-June) under G2G agreements.
The fuel will be sourced from China, India, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand and Indonesia, and includes diesel and jet fuel.
Bangladesh's annual demand for fuel oil stands at around 65 to 70 lakh tonnes, most of which is imported. In the 2024-25 financial year, BPC supplied 68.35 lakh tonnes of fuel oil across the country.
Sanctioning of Russia Act 2025
The proposed sanctions are designed to force Russia into peace negotiations in Ukraine by crippling its economic lifelines, according to a Hindustan Times report.
The Act requires the US president to determine every 90 days if Russia is refusing to negotiate a peace agreement or has violated one. A negative determination triggers "bone-crushing" mandatory sanctions.
The key provisions of the bill are, 500% tariffs: It mandates tariffs of at least 500% on goods from any country that knowingly imports Russian oil, gas, or uranium. This provision explicitly targets major importers like China, India, and Brazil to cut off Russia's war financing.
Secondary sanctions: It imposes secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions and entities that facilitate transactions for Russia's energy sector.
Asset freezes and bans: The bill blocks assets of Russian officials (including Vladimir Putin) and oligarchs, bans Russian stocks from US exchanges, and prohibits US investment in Russian energy.
