US sanctions could threaten SDG financing: Economists

If the US imposes sanctions on Bangladesh centring the upcoming elections, it could seriously impact overall food security in the country, affecting financing for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), economists and experts have warned.

Besides, slow global growth could push more people into poverty this year as well as malnutrition rate may also increase, they said at the Annual BIDS Conference on Development (ABCD) 2023, arranged by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) at a Dhaka hotel on Friday. 

On the second day of the three-day conference, themed "Global Price Shocks and Food Security," the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) presented various articles and studies on the overall food security of the country.

Danielle Resnick, a senior research fellow at IFPRI, expressed concerns about Bangladesh's upcoming election, citing the potential impact of US sanctions on the country's SDG financing. 

Resnick highlighted that as early as 2017, Bangladesh's SDG financing strategy showed a shortfall of $66.3 billion to meet implementation targets between 2017 and 2030. 

She emphasised that the current shortfall has accelerated since the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, impacting both the food system and financing. 

Resnick also noted that rising inflation poses a major challenge for Bangladesh but highlighted the country's lower risk of debt distress.

Angga Pradesha, senior scientist at IFPRI, painted a grim picture, stating that the Covid-19 pandemic has globally increased poverty rates, causing 2.8 million people to fall below the poverty line in Bangladesh in 2022. 

Articles presented at the seminar suggested that the global low growth rate may lead to an additional 50,000 people falling below the poverty line in Bangladesh this year, with an extra 200,000 individuals at risk of malnutrition.

Moreover, the surge in global food market prices, driven by the impact of Covid-19 and war, resulted in 2.8 million people in Bangladesh slipping below the poverty line in 2022, while 3.1 million people experienced malnutrition, a number projected to reach 3.3 million this year.

James Thurlow, the director of IFPRI, remarked that the recently published poverty line rate for Bangladesh was considerably lower than anticipated. 

Presenting insights into the structure of Bangladesh's food system, Thurlow noted that the agrifood system extends beyond the farm, with off-farm components such as processing, trade, transport, food service, and input supply growing faster than primary agriculture, contributing to positive structural change. 

However, he emphasised that the policy landscape is becoming more complex, with various sectors spanning multiple ministries and mandates, leading to unavoidable trade-offs that are increasingly challenging to manage.

In another session at the event, BIDS director Binayak Sen stressed the value of unpaid domestic work in the GDP. 

Citing a report, he highlighted that domestic and care work holds an estimated value of approximately $73 billion, with women's work accounting for about 14.8% of GDP and men's work for about 2.8% of GDP.