Tarique’s return eases election uncertainty, raises hopes of market turnaround

BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman's return to Bangladesh after more than 17 years in exile has significantly reduced uncertainty around the upcoming national election and boosted expectations of a turnaround in the capital market, according to stock market stakeholders.

Market participants said that although the election schedule was announced earlier, investor uncertainty had persisted – a condition they believe has now largely eased following Tarique Rahman's homecoming. 

Stakeholders said the scale of public reception has reinforced expectations of a BNP victory in the election, with Tarique emerging as a leading contender to become prime minister. 

They also noted that BNP leaders have indicated that the capital market will be addressed in the party's election manifesto – a signal expected to strengthen investor confidence. 

Minhaz Mannan Emon, shareholder director at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and managing director of BLI Securities, told The Business Standard that both market stakeholders and general investors felt the capital market had been neglected under the previous government and suffered from manipulation and lack of growth, resulting in losses for ordinary investors.

We believe there is a direct link between Tarique's return and the prospect of a better market. A BNP-led government could bring long-term stability and growth to the market. Minhaz Mannan Emon, Director at DSE

Mannan noted that election-related uncertainty was a key reason investor remained inactive. "The most surprising thing was that even after the election schedule was announced, the market didn't react. With Tarique now back in the country, we believe there is no longer major uncertainty surrounding the election," he said. 

Mannan further said that effective governance will require democratic transparency, restructuring of the economy and financial sectors, and making the capital market more transparent and vibrant. 

He highlighted repeated BNP statements indicating inclusion of capital market reform in the party's manifesto, which he believes will have positive effects in the coming days.

"We believe there is a direct link between Tarique's return and the prospect of a better market. We expect to see its impact in the coming days," he said, adding that a BNP-led government could bring long-term stability and growth to the market.

He also pointed to recent regulatory steps taken during the interim period led by Khondoker Rashed Maqsood led Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission — such as margin loan rules, mutual fund regulations, and near-finalisation of new IPO rules — noting that major manipulators from previous years also faced punishment. "The market is now structurally ready for improvement," he said.

Meanwhile, Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers' Association, echoed Minhaz Mannan's sentiment, noting that senior BNP leader Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury has publicly stated the party will give the capital market special importance in its manifesto. "We are optimistic that investor confidence will increase centring on Tarique Rahman," he added.