Oil at $150 may push world into recession: BlackRock CEO

Larry Fink, the chief executive of US-based asset management giant BlackRock, has warned that a sharp rise in global oil prices to $150 per barrel could trigger a deep global recession.

Speaking to the BBC in an exclusive interview, he said prolonged geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, could keep energy prices elevated and severely strain the global economy.

Fink denied concerns of an AI bubble, though he noted that the technology is exposing an imbalance, with too many people pursuing university degrees instead of technical training.

BlackRock, which manages around $14 trillion in assets, is one of the world's largest investors, giving Fink a unique perspective on the global economy. He added that ongoing Middle East tensions have caused significant volatility in financial markets as investors assess the impact on energy prices.

"It is too early to determine the final outcome," Fink said, referring to the ongoing Middle East situation.

However, he outlined two possible scenarios: a diplomatic resolution that stabilises markets and lowers oil prices, or a prolonged conflict that could push crude prices above $100, potentially nearing $150 for years.

Industry body Offshore Energies UK yesterday (24 March) warned that without increased domestic production, the country could become more reliant on imports amid rising global instability.

Fink said nations must take a pragmatic approach to energy, stressing that affordable power is essential for economic growth and living standards. He described rising energy costs as a "regressive tax" that disproportionately affects poorer households.

He added that sustained oil prices at $150 could accelerate a global shift towards renewable energy such as solar and wind, urging countries to diversify rather than depend on a single energy source.

No repeat of global financial crisis Fink dismissed concerns of a repeat of the 2007-08 financial crisis, saying current market conditions bear "zero" resemblance and that financial institutions are now far more resilient.

While acknowledging volatility driven by rising energy prices and some pressure in private credit funds, he said these issues represent only a small part of the broader market, with institutional investment remaining strong.

He also rejected claims of an AI investment bubble, stating that while some failures are possible, overall spending is justified amid a global race for technological dominance.

Fink added that high energy costs remain a key barrier to AI expansion in the US and Europe, urging greater investment in affordable power, particularly solar, to support future growth. AI to boost skilled trade jobs.

Earlier this week, in his annual letter to shareholders, Larry Fink warned that the rapid growth of artificial intelligence could widen inequality, with benefits concentrated among a small group of firms and investors.

However, speaking to the BBC, he emphasised AI would also create an "enormous amount of jobs," particularly in skilled trades such as electricians, welders, and plumbers. In contrast, demand for some office-based jobs may decline as AI develops, prompting a rethink of workforce needs as society evolves.

"We really put judgment on so many jobs, and so many people who probably should not have gone into banking or media or law, [who] probably should have been a great worker with their hands, and we need to now rebalance that approach," he says.

He points to the United States after World War II, when young people were strongly encouraged to attend college, a trend he believes was overemphasised.

"We need to balance that out, and we need to be proud that... a career can be just as strong in these fields of plumbing and electricians," Fink said.