Inflation shoots up to 9.13% in February, highest in 10 months

Inflation in Bangladesh jumped to a 10-month high last month amid fears that price pressures could persist in the coming months as the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts global supply chains.

According to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) released today (8 March), general inflation rose to 9.13% on a point-to-point basis in February, up from 8.58% in January.

This marks the highest level in 10 months since April 2025 when the inflation rate was 9.17%. The inflation rate was 8.58% in January this year, while it stood at 9.32% in February of the previous year.

The latest increase was largely driven by a notable rise in food inflation, which climbed to 9.3% in February, marking the highest level in 13 months. Food inflation in January was 8.29%.

Non-food inflation also increased alongside food prices in February. During the month, non-food inflation rose to 9.01%, compared with 8.81% in January. In February last year, non-food inflation stood at 9.38%.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said the notable rise in both food and overall inflation in February was driven by pressures on both the demand and supply sides.

"Food inflation rose most sharply in urban areas, where election campaigning and related hospitality activities – such as tea gatherings and biryani distribution – were largely concentrated. Rural areas also saw higher food inflation though the increase was smaller than in cities," he told TBS.

He said there were no major developments on the demand side in February. Remittance inflows were also slightly lower than in January. However, significant disruptions emerged on the supply side, particularly in port operations. Some imported goods were delayed, creating uncertainty in the market.

'We have to adapt'

Zahid Hussain warned the ongoing Middle East conflict could push inflation even higher. The rise in the dollar value and disruptions to energy and fertiliser imports have further strained supply chains.

"As a result, the cost of food and other goods is rising, and the impact could be prolonged due to the war and global supply shocks. Both oil and non-oil import costs are increasing," said the economist.

"Shipping, insurance and port charges have all gone up," he said. "The stronger dollar in global markets is also putting pressure on the exchange rate, adding to supply chain disruptions and rising costs."

Zahid feared the impact would not disappear immediately even if the war ends. "The situation is largely beyond control, so we have to adapt," he said.

'Monetary policy decisions now complicated'

Zahid Husaain said monetary policy decisions have also become more complicated. There is little scope to lower the policy at the moment, and a tight monetary stance will likely need to continue.

"Efforts are being made to keep the exchange market stable. Bangladesh Bank is also monitoring LC openings and settlements to ensure import payments do not face disruptions," he said.

He added that fiscal policy is also under pressure. Some expenditures could be temporarily postponed, and development projects under the Annual Development Programme should be prioritised.

However, he said social safety net programmes should not face any cuts, as food inflation is hitting poor households the hardest. "Instead, the effectiveness of social programmes should be strengthened."

Rural inflation rises to 9.21%

Inflation in rural areas rose to 9.21% in February 2026, up from 8.63% in January, though it remained below February 2025's 9.51%, according to BBS data.

Rural food inflation climbed to 9.07% from 8.18% in January, compared with 9.15% in February 2025. Non-food inflation in rural areas also rose, reaching 9.34% from 9.04% in January, below last year's 9.85%.

Urban inflation increased to 9.07% in February 2026, up from 8.57% in January. Food inflation in urban areas rose to 9.87% from 8.61%. Non-food inflation edged up to 8.57% from 8.54% in January.

Wage growth

National wage growth slowed slightly to 8.06% in February 2026 from 8.08% in January, down from 8.12% a year ago, marking the 48th consecutive month wages lagged behind inflation.

In February, wages grew by 8.10% in agriculture, 7.99% in industry, and 8.20% in services, compared with January rates of 8.12%, 7.98%, and 8.24% respectively.