Govt sets ambitious post-LDC targets as investment languishes

Infographic: TBS

The government is preparing an ambitious five-year trade and investment strategy to support a smooth transition from least developed country (LDC) status, targeting a 75% rise in per capita income to $5,000 by 2031 through higher investment, stronger export competitiveness, and wide-ranging regulatory reforms.

It also hopes to make significant progress in reducing economic vulnerability while improving human assets and social development indicators under the plan.

The targets are outlined in the Country Programme Document 2026-2031, prepared by the commerce ministry with financial support from the World Trade Organisation (WTO). 

The programme aligns with the BNP's election manifesto and the "Smooth Transition Strategy" prepared during the previous Awami League administration.

Under the plan, Bangladesh aims to increase services exports to $10 billion within five years while expanding the number of exportable products by 60%. It also seeks to raise export-oriented investment from 0.65% of GDP to 1%.

The strategy comes at a time when Bangladesh's financial sector remains under pressure, private sector investment growth is at its lowest level on record, and many businesses are unable to start production despite making investments because of energy shortages.

The plan also follows decades of limited progress in export diversification and efforts to improve the investment climate.

The Country Programme places strong emphasis on modernisingtrade infrastructure, attracting FDI and reducing Bangladesh's heavy dependence on the ready-made garments sector.

Prepared jointly by the Ministry of Commerce and the WTO's Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF), the report stresses the need to make the business and investment environment simpler and more modern, alongside wide-ranging regulatory reforms.

The programme has initially identified 52 projects to help achieve its objectives. It also outlines the expected financial and technical support from development partners, alongside the respective roles of the government and business organisations.

Investment constraints

Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said higher public, private and foreign investment would be essential if Bangladesh was to achieve its 2031 targets.

"Private investment is currently at its lowest level in history. This is due to the gas and electricity crisis, infrastructure bottlenecks and high bank lending rates," he told The Business Standard after reviewing the programme.

"If reliable gas and electricity supplies cannot be ensured and lending rates are not brought down to single digits, investment will not increase and these targets will remain beyond reach."

Implementation key to success

The commerce ministry held a validation workshop on Sunday to finalise the five-year programme.

At the event, Commerce Secretary Md Ataur Rahman Khan said preparing policies and research reports alone would not be enough, stressing that successful implementation would determine whether the programme achieved its objectives.

Former additional secretary and EIF consultant Md HafizurRahman said development partners would provide financial and technical assistance to support implementation. "If the government takes the right decisions at the right time and implements them effectively, achieving these targets will become much easier."

The programme also states that Bangladesh's progress will be assessed against various international benchmarks to measure both the implementation of reforms and improvements in the country's overall capacity.

Preparing for post-LDC challenges

Government reports have warned that once Bangladesh graduates from LDC status, it will gradually lose duty-free and quota-free market access, simplified rules of origin and flexibilities under the WTO's Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), with potential implications for exports and investment.

Bangladesh is officially set to graduate from its LDC status on 24 November 2026. 

However, citing global economic uncertainty and persistent structural vulnerabilities, the government has sought a three-year extension of the preparatory period until 2029. The request has been endorsed by the UN Committee for Development Policy (CDP) and is awaiting final approval from the UN General Assembly.

To address the challenges, the government plans to sign free trade agreements (FTAs) or economic partnership agreements (EPAs) with nine countries over the next five years.

Bangladesh currently has an EPA only with Japan. Negotiations are under way with India, China, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, the European Union and several other trading partners.

The action plan targets an increase in per capita income from $2,820 in 2026 to $5,000 by 2031. It also aims to double services exports from $5 billion to $10 billion.

The document also describes Bangladesh's services export earnings as disappointing.

"More than 56% contribution in the GDP is coming from service sectors. But the exports in these sectors are minimal; they are not more than $7 billion. Product-based export earnings have limits to be explored," it says.

"Poor logistics efficiency, inadequate tourism infrastructure and limited strategic foreign investment in service industries reduce competitiveness. As Bangladesh transitions from LDC status, the service sector will face stronger international competition, making regulatory reform, skills upgrading, digital transformation and a long-term service trade development roadmap critical for sustainable growth," it adds.

Export diversification, reforms

The programme places strong emphasis on export diversification, noting that Bangladesh currently exports around 500 products worth more than $1,000 each. It aims to increase that number to 800 within five years.

The commerce ministry also plans to raise export-oriented investment from 0.65% of GDP to 1%.

The report says Bangladesh is currently utilising only 71% of the trade preferences available to it as an LDC because of limited export diversification. The government aims to increase that utilisation rate to 80% over the next five years.

Alongside trade and investment targets, the programme gives priority to regulatory reforms.

Bangladesh currently scores 25.7 on the Regulatory Quality Index. The government aims to raise that score to 40 within five years, saying the target is achievable because of strong political commitment at the highest levels to implement regulatory reforms.

The government also plans to improve the country's score on the Investment Facilitation Index from 65.6 to 80 over the next five years through its reform agenda.

According to the Global Economic Diversification Index, Bangladesh scored 95 on the Trade Diversification Index in 2025. The programme aims to raise that score to 130 by 2031 by encouraging greater private sector diversification and higher value addition.