Will cenbank's Tk40,000cr refinance scheme fuel inflation?

Bangladesh Bank's planned Tk40,000 crore refinance scheme to revive closed factories has raised concerns among economists and officials over its potential macroeconomic impact.

The initiative aims to boost production and protect jobs, but questions remain over how it will be financed.

Analysts say the source of funds will be critical in determining whether the scheme adds pressure on prices.

Concerns over inflation

Economists and central bank officials have cautioned that financing the scheme through fresh money creation could increase inflationary pressure by expanding the money supply.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said the issue is particularly important at a time when many banks are facing liquidity shortages and government revenue growth remains under strain.

"At present, many banks are facing liquidity shortages, and government revenue growth is also under pressure. If the central bank directly finances the scheme, it could add to inflationary pressure by increasing the money supply," she said.

She suggested that the fund could be mobilised through a combination of sources, including banks with stronger liquidity positions and allocations from the national budget, to help reduce inflation risks.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official also warned that injecting the full amount through the central bank could have a multiplied impact on overall liquidity due to the money multiplier effect.

"If the full Tk40,000 crore is injected by the central bank, the overall impact on the economy could be several times higher, putting additional pressure on prices," the official said.

The official added that such a move could complicate the central bank's efforts to control inflation, potentially creating a policy trade-off between maintaining price stability and supporting employment and industrial recovery.