Banks asked to avoid forward booking to keep dollar rate in check

The Bangladesh Bank has discouraged commercial banks from engaging in forward dollar bookings to prevent artificial supply shortages in the spot market that could drive up the greenback's price.

Highlights: TBS

Speaking to The Business Standard, senior officials at the central bank said several banks sharply increased forward bookings after conflict escalated in the Middle East, prompting fears that the dollar could become more expensive in the coming months.

Forward foreign currency selling is a transaction in which a bank or another party commits to selling a specified amount of foreign currency at a pre-determined exchange rate on a future date. The mechanism is commonly used by businesses and financial institutions to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations.

Under existing Bangladesh Bank guidelines, authorised dealer banks may undertake forward sales only against the genuine needs of customers and must ensure that the contracts are intended to neutralise exchange rate risk. 

Banks may buy forward from exporters, foreign currency account holders, exchange houses, and other counterparties, but are required to cover their own risk as soon as possible.

The forward price is determined by adding a premium to the current price.

According to central bank officials, banks have been verbally advised not to rely on dollars purchased from the spot market to meet forward contracts. Instead, they have been encouraged to undertake forward sales only against their own forward purchases.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said that a small number of banks had been increasing forward bookings aggressively.

"After the matter came to the attention of the Bangladesh Bank, the banks were told to avoid further forward booking because rising forward sales create pressure in the spot market, increasing the risk of a higher dollar rate," the official said.

"When banks cannot obtain enough dollars in the spot market to meet demand, the exchange rate rises. If banks continue to make excessive forward commitments, the dollar could become more expensive again," he explained.

The official said banks that had previously contributed to instability in the foreign exchange market by purchasing large amounts of dollars in May 2022 were among those increasing forward bookings this month.

"However, the Bangladesh Bank has been able to bring the situation under control before it became more serious," the official added.

Demand for forward bookings rises

Industry insiders said demand for forward bookings rose sharply from the middle of March and remained strong until the first week of April. Although demand eased somewhat by mid-April, businesses remain interested in locking in exchange rates because of uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.

Bankers said demand could rise further if the conflict continues, if there are renewed expectations of a higher dollar rate, or if disruption occurs in the Strait of Hormuz.

A senior executive at a private commercial bank said the Bangladesh Bank had instructed lenders not to use dollars bought in the spot market for forward selling.

"We have been told that forward selling should be backed only by forward buying. But that is not possible for many banks because most do not have sufficient forward purchases in stock," he said.

"At the same time, businesses are seeking more forward bookings than before."

Several leading business groups have faced difficulties securing forward contracts since the central bank began discouraging the practice.

A senior executive at one of the country's largest conglomerates said the company had approached several private banks over the past week to arrange forward contracts, but the banks refused in line with the central bank's instruction.

According to the managing directors of some banks. The central bank had recently contacted them to seek details of how their institutions had calculated forward contracts after demand increased following the outbreak of war.

Despite the rise in forward demand, bankers said the supply of dollars in the market remains relatively comfortable and the exchange rate has begun to ease after a brief rise.

According to bankers, the dollar rate started falling after the Bangladesh Bank purchased dollars from commercial banks through auctions for two consecutive days at Tk122.75.

A senior official at a leading private company said his firm settled an import letter of credit at Tk122.98 per dollar last Wednesday, compared with Tk123.10 on Tuesday.

Cenbank move questioned

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, questioned the central bank's argument that forward booking itself would increase the dollar rate.

"The pressure on the dollar is coming from international markets. The increase in the taka-dollar exchange rate in Bangladesh has broadly matched the rise in the international dollar index," he said.

He also said there was a contradiction between Bangladesh Bank's commitment to a market-based exchange rate and its intervention in the market whenever the exchange rate fluctuates.

"If banks are forced to undertake forward selling only against forward buying, or if forward booking is discouraged altogether, that is itself a form of intervention that prevents the market from functioning naturally," he said.

Arfan Ali, former managing director of Bank Asia, said forward booking should be viewed as a legitimate risk management tool.

He said the volume of foreign exchange transactions in Bangladesh remains relatively low compared with many other countries, and most businesses have not traditionally engaged in hedging.

"Businesses may not previously have felt much need for forward booking. But the war has changed the situation, so demand has increased as companies seek to reduce their risk," he said. "This market should be allowed to become more viable."