Bangladesh among top 8 countries for population outflows: Mastercard

Bangladesh is among the top eight countries with the highest population outflows, driven by the pursuit of better opportunities abroad and concerns over security at home, according to a Mastercard report. 

"Bangladesh is one of the markets with the largest outflows of population, alongside India, Mexico, Russia, Syria, the Chinese Mainland, Pakistan and Ukraine, driven by various factors, including the search for better opportunities and security concerns," said Mastercard in the report.

However, the outflow of population from Bangladesh helps the country's economy with the inflow of remittances, accounting for 5% of its GDP.

The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) released its annual economic outlook for 2025, forecasting continued growth for Asia Pacific aligned with 2024 levels, while lower inflation and easing interest rates are set to provide relief to consumers and households. 

This is largely in line with broader economic trends, as the global economy is expected to see 3.2% growth following a pace of 3.1% in 2024, it projected.

Remittances serve as a lifeline

Economic recovery and local financial reforms are expected to sustain remittance growth in South Asia through 2025, said Mastercard, an American multinational payment card services corporation.

While migration results in a loss of human capital, it also generates substantial remittances, which serve as a lifeline for low- and middle-income communities in developing economies, particularly in South Asia. 

According to the World Bank, remittances surged from $128 billion in 2000 to $857 billion in 2023, with an estimated growth of 3% in 2024 and 2025. 

Net migration contributed 8.4% to Canada's population growth from 2019 to 2023, compared to 2.5% in the United States, with Bangladesh being one of the countries contributing the largest outflows there.

APAC to see tight labour markets

As the disinflationary environment eases the burden on consumers, the MEI forecasts that APAC will see tight labour markets and a catch-up of inflation-adjusted wages, which is expected to contribute to increased spending—especially on discretionary items, including big-ticket purchases such as electronics, furniture and appliances. 

While some of the pent-up demand for experience spending has subsided, consumers are still prioritising big-ticket moments, such as major concerts and events, it said.  

Travel in APAC is expected to remain robust, though total passenger numbers in mid-2024 were still 12% short of 2019 levels.

"If 2024 was about 'getting back to normal', 2025 is about normalization as volatility subsides and easing monetary policy allows consumers to benefit from economic growth," said David Mann, chief economist, Asia Pacific, Mastercard. 

"However, policy decisions like potential interest rate rises in Japan or US tariffs could significantly impact this growth. Businesses should leverage consumer optimism while preparing for potential trade disruptions," he said.

Consumers seek more cost-effective apparel

Consumers are now seeking more cost-effective apparel options. MEI has found that, in terms of year-to-date spending growth, mass apparel brands are outpacing luxury ones globally by an average of 7 percentage points. 

"Even though consumers are set to spend in 2025, there are some caveats," said Mann. 

He added, "For essential purchases without substitutes, increased prices are unlikely to affect sales. However, where alternatives exist, consumers may opt for more affordable versions of goods and experiences. 

This budget-conscious behavior may reflect residual caution after years of economic uncertainty and an attempt to balance a higher, yet relatively stable, cost of living."