World is halfway back to pre-pandemic life

"Return to normalcy" was a promise that helped Warren Harding win the 1920 US presidency after the Spanish flu. The world is facing the same reality after a century amid a race for vaccination and series of lockdowns to tame the virus.

Though in theory, vaccines should end the pandemic and mark the beginning of normalcy, many countries are racing to return to normal life without doing much on vaccination.

The "normalcy index" devised by The Economist says life is half-way back to pre-Covid norms, though many places are sliding backwards and many countries like Australia, Bangladesh and Thailand have imposed new restrictions.

The Economist tracked data from 50 countries, which account for 76% of the world's population and 90% of its gross domestic product.

The index was relative to a pre-Covid norm of 100. For example, China sits at 66 in the index, implying that only half of the disruption caused by covid-19 has been reversed.

The normalcy index reveals differences in vaccination rates do not fully explain why some countries advanced more towards normalcy than others.

In countries like Israel, where most adults have got two jabs, life is now close to that in 2019. But in many other countries, normalcy remains a long way off even after a success in vaccination.

For example, Chile, where 77% of adult vaccination, locked down its capital last month.

The normalcy index tracked three types of activity: travel by roads and air, leisure like cinema and sports to detect people's time spent outside home and commercial activity measured by footfall in shops and offices.

Most Western countries are close to this average. America is at 73, the EU 71, Australia 70 and Britain 62. Elsewhere, the range is wider. Both Hong Kong and New Zealand, the leaders at 96 and 88, enjoy nearly full normalcy. In contrast, since April Malaysia's value has fallen from 55 to 27.

Although many governments have required people to stay at home, such rules are hard to enforce, according to the index.

Last April, even though half of the world's population was subject to such orders, the global average of time spent outside homes fell by only 15%. Compliance rates appear similarly low today: around 14% of people are not allowed to venture out, yet time not at home is just 5% below the baseline of 2019.

Activities in Hong Kong came closest to pre-pandemic level sitting at 96 on normalcy index. People are venturing out of home and using public transports with road traffic back to December 2020 situation.

New Zealand follows at 87.   

 Pakistan 3rd, India 48th

Pakistan ranks 3rd in the index scoring more than 84.

Its use of public transports is back to normal level since December 2020, while full vaccination is only 1.4% until 1 July

"Life remains abnormal in most countries where covid-19 outbreaks took off before enough people could obtain full protection," said The Economist index.

India ranked 48th out of 50 countries studied with a score of 46.5, meaning India is returning close to half of its pre-Covid days. 

Malaysia is also far behind on the road back to normalcy, sitting at the bottom of the index. 

Richer countries, where people can work more from home, look slower than poorer nations in their journey back to normalcy. 

For example, the US ranks 20th, the UK 36th and Singapore 43th on the index.

Israel stands 9th and the United Arab Emirates 27th despite their higher rate of vaccination.

The Economist says its normalcy index does not track economic recovery closely. Some behaviours, such as air travel, are likely to recover eventually. Other variables, like cinema-going or working from home, could signal an enduring change.