Where the rapid rise of megacities is unsustainable | The Business Standard
Skip to main content
  • Epaper
  • Economy
    • Aviation
    • Banking
    • Bazaar
    • Budget
    • Industry
    • NBR
    • RMG
    • Corporates
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • Subscribe
    • Epaper
    • GOVT. Ad
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Wednesday
May 28, 2025

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Epaper
  • Economy
    • Aviation
    • Banking
    • Bazaar
    • Budget
    • Industry
    • NBR
    • RMG
    • Corporates
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • Subscribe
    • Epaper
    • GOVT. Ad
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
WEDNESDAY, MAY 28, 2025
Where the rapid rise of megacities is unsustainable

Bloomberg Special

Linda Poon; Bloomberg
20 October, 2022, 06:05 pm
Last modified: 20 October, 2022, 06:16 pm

Related News

  • Trump administration food aid cuts put millions at risk: aid sources
  • Rangpur tops food insecurity index, Sylhet follows
  • What the future of the global population looks like
  • More than 60% of world now on social media: study
  • Climate justice gets harder as world population passes 8 billion

Where the rapid rise of megacities is unsustainable

The populations of Kinshasa, Nairobi and Lagos will grow at least 80% in the coming decades, according to a new report

Linda Poon; Bloomberg
20 October, 2022, 06:05 pm
Last modified: 20 October, 2022, 06:16 pm
Motorcycle taxis ride through a busy street market in the Kangemi district of Nairobi, Kenya, on Aug. 1, 2022. Photographer: Michele Spatari/Bloomberg
Motorcycle taxis ride through a busy street market in the Kangemi district of Nairobi, Kenya, on Aug. 1, 2022. Photographer: Michele Spatari/Bloomberg

With 10 billion people expected to cram into urban areas by mid-century, the world will add at least 14 new megacities — many of which are at risk of threats including food and water insecurity, conflict and high crime rates, as well as climate-change related disasters like flooding and drought.

These growing cities, each with populations surpassing 10 million by 2050, add to 33 existing megacities. But ecological threats and lack of societal resilience make their rise — and the rapid pace of urban expansion more generally — unsustainable, warns a report published Wednesday by the global think tank Institute for Economics and Peace.

Emerging Megacities
The world is expected to add at least 14 new megacities by mid-century, each with population surpassing 10 million.

The Business Standard Google News Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel

The fastest-growing cities will be in sub-Saharan Africa, projected to be home to 2.1 billion people over the next three decades. The region includes five of the 20 most at-risk emerging and existing megacities, according to the report. Among the most unsustainable are Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo; Nairobi, Kenya; and Lagos, Nigeria, all of which could see their metro area populations grow by at least 80%.

All of the megacities in South Asia, meanwhile, will see their populations grow by at least 50%. At least eight are listed by the report as being among the most unsustainable, including Dhaka, Bangladesh; Lahore, Pakistan; and Kolkata and Delhi in India.

"Generally, they are in low-income, low-peace countries, meaning they simply don't have the financial capacity to be able to cope with the growth," says IEP's founder Steve Killelea. A lack of finances can block cities from improving critical infrastructure, reducing crime and supporting the local economy. Those with the largest population growth — mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia — will see resources stretch even thinner and confront the most sustainability challenges.

Food and Water Insecurity
Sub-Saharan Africa has the worst ecological threat report (ETR) score, which measures a country's population growth alongside its vulnerability to food insecurity, natural disasters and water stress, according to the report. Several cities also rank low or very low on IEP's Positive and Global Peace Indices, which quantify a country's level of peacefulness as it relates to social and economic resilience. 

That includes three rapidly emerging megacities: The Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi metro areas could see their current populations more than double to 16.4 million and 10.4 million, respectively, while the population in Luanda, Angola, will grow by 62% to 14.6 million people.

But while more than half of the region's population considers crime and violence as more urgent than climate change, the report emphasizes that ecological degradation, resilience and conflict are intertwined. "The lack of water is intimately related to lack of food and to high population growth in areas that are already in conflict and already unsustainable," Killelea says.

Shoppers and pedestrians walk past stalls at the Bhadra Fort market in Ahmedabad, India, on Oct. 22, 2020. Photographer: Sumit Dayal/Bloomberg
Shoppers and pedestrians walk past stalls at the Bhadra Fort market in Ahmedabad, India, on Oct. 22, 2020. Photographer: Sumit Dayal/Bloomberg

South Asia, which is home to the predicted megacity Ahmedabad in India, has the second-worst ETR score, according to the report. Cities like Ahmedabad will be increasingly exposed to extremely high levels of air pollution, water stress and catastrophic-weather disasters. Many who move to already-crowded city centers are seeking shelter, stability and refuge from climate catastrophes, putting stress on  infrastructure and the government's ability to provide jobs and services.

In Bangladesh, where the government predicts that one in every seven citizens will be displaced by climate change by 2050, Dhaka's population could grow from 22.6 million to 34.6 million, testing the city's housing infrastructure, among other things. "People tend to flow to areas that are simply the cheapest, and they're going to quite often the most overcrowded place where they can just simply survive," says Killelea. "So slums just seem to rise up naturally."

Dhaka's informal settlements — where sewage is inadequate, fresh water is lacking, and illegal gas lines and burners raise the risks of fires — have been expanding into hazardous, low-lying areas near water, putting residents at risk of dangerous flooding.

Time for Policy Changes
That's not to say that megacities in higher-income countries aren't without threat, even if they tend to have more resources to adapt. The  Chicago and London metro areas will both surpass 10 million residents in 2050. The New York metro area will see its population jump from 18.9 million to 22.8 million. These cities face rising threats of extreme heat and catastrophic flooding that will put pressure on aging storm-drain systems and pose particularly significant risks to underserved communities.

But Killelea says there's still time for cities to enact key policy changes to mitigate the sustainability risks. The report calls for interventions like multilateral cooperation between governments and the private sector, and budgetary restructuring to prioritize ecological adaptation (though it also emphasized the need to study how funding reallocation may impact different groups)

A key solution, he stressed, is the economic empowerment in low- and middle-income countries. Not only will that boost resilience through improving the workforce, studies have shown that empowering women in particular leads to smaller family sizes and better health policies in low- and middle-income countries.

The report also calls for cities to empower local communities to address challenges, as opposed to top-down interventions. Community-led approaches make better use of local knowledge and garner greater community buy-in, thereby reducing research and implementation costs.

Though the challenge is immense, Killelea added that he's optimistic. "I'm not underestimating the challenges," he says. "But if you don't look at the challenges and take in a somewhat optimistic approach, what hope is there?"


Linda Poon is a writer for CityLab in Washington, D.C., focused on climate change and urban life. She also writes the CityLab Daily newsletter.

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Bloomberg, and is published by special syndication arrangement. 

Top News / World+Biz

Megacities / Global population / food insecurity

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • Inflation, exchange rate shocks to intensify fiscal pressure in FY26
    Inflation, exchange rate shocks to intensify fiscal pressure in FY26
  • Screengrab from Google Maps shows traffic situation in Dhaka roads on the morning of Wednesday, 28 May 2025
    BNP, Jamaat rally day: Traffic likely to clog Dhaka roads, including Shahbagh, Nayapaltan, Kakrail
  • File photo of jamaat leader ATM Azharul Islam
    Jamaat leader ATM Azharul walks out of jail after acquittal in war crimes case

MOST VIEWED

  • Selim RF Hussain. Sketch: TBS
    BRAC Bank MD Selim RF Hussain resigns
  • Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur. TBS Sketch
    Depositors need not worry as govt will take over banks before merger: BB governor
  • Graphics: TBS
    Suspicious banking activities surge by 56% since July: Cenbank
  • Photo: Collected
    DU student assaulted for protesting eve-teasing at Chadni Chowk
  • Illustration: TBS
    Bangladesh sees highest-ever per capita income of $2,820 in FY25, BBS provisional data shows
  • Officials protest inside the Secretariat on Tuesday, 27 May 2025, over a government ordinance amending the Public Service Act, 2018. Photo: Rajib Dhar
    Protest at Secretariat suspended as govt assures decision on ordinance tomorrow

Related News

  • Trump administration food aid cuts put millions at risk: aid sources
  • Rangpur tops food insecurity index, Sylhet follows
  • What the future of the global population looks like
  • More than 60% of world now on social media: study
  • Climate justice gets harder as world population passes 8 billion

Features

In recent years, the Gor-e-Shaheed Eidgah has emerged as a strong contender for the crown of the biggest Eid congregation in the country, having hosted 600,000 worshippers in 2017. Photo: TBS

Gor-e-Shaheed Boro Maath: The heart of Dinajpur

1d | Panorama
The Hili Land Port, officially opened in 1997 but with trade roots stretching back to before Partition, has grown into a cornerstone of bilateral commerce.

Dhaka-Delhi tensions ripple across Hili’s markets and livelihoods

2d | Panorama
Photo: Collected

Desk goals: Affordable ways to elevate your study setup

2d | Brands
Built on a diamond-type frame, the Hornet 2.0 is agile but grounded. PHOTO: Asif Chowdhury

Honda Hornet 2.0: Same spirit, upgraded sting

2d | Wheels

More Videos from TBS

How can we protect Dhaka’s rivers and canals from plastic waste?

How can we protect Dhaka’s rivers and canals from plastic waste?

1h | TBS Programs
Jamaat leader ATM Azhar released from prison after 13 years

Jamaat leader ATM Azhar released from prison after 13 years

1h | TBS Today
Trump delays 50% tariffs on EU goods

Trump delays 50% tariffs on EU goods

12h | Others
Eid may be celebrated in Bangladesh on June 7

Eid may be celebrated in Bangladesh on June 7

12h | TBS Today
EMAIL US
contact@tbsnews.net
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Advertisement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2025
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - oped.tbs@gmail.com

For advertisement- sales@tbsnews.net