Army chief for polls within December: What are the roadblocks ahead?

Eschewing any ambiguity, Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman yesterday (21 May) drew a line, stating that the national election should ideally be held by December this year.

His announcement came at a time of raging uncertainty and intensifying speculation regarding the upcoming poll's date.

Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, on the other hand, had set a timeline of December 2025 or June 2026.

This long period only provoked uncertainty, with the BNP, the largest party, voicing concern over it.

The BNP has also called for elections to be held within December 2025, which aligns with what the army chief has said.

The EC, too, has said that it was eyeing a December election.

The matter now seems to be almost settled. But a few roadblocks remain.

A rocky road 

One of the key sticklers on the road to elections is the issue of political reforms.

The National Consensus Commission (NCC) has been formed to deliberate on different reforms with political parties.

But there has been a stalemate in major areas such as the recommendation of curtailing the power of the prime minister, setting term limits and forming a National Constitutional Council, which it said would prevent the rise of an authoritarian prime minister.

Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has, however, stated that the timeline for elections will depend on the completion of agreed-upon reforms, with the operative words being "agreed upon".

While the BNP has called for only carrying out the most essential reforms and holding polls, the NCP has been adamant about the need for comprehensive reforms as outlined by the Constitutional Reform Commission. 

Jamaat, meanwhile, has toed the line. 

While no consensus on fundamental issues can be said to have been reached, new ones have popped up. 

Only yesterday, the National Citizen Party (NCP) began staging demonstrations in front of Nirbachan Bhaban, demanding the reconstitution of the Election Commission (EC) and the arrangement of local government elections.

It is to be noted that the current Election Commission has already been reconstituted by the interim government, but the NCP says this was done before any reform initiatives were undertaken. 

Their call, however, came soon after the EC issued a gazette declaring BNP leader Ishraque Hossain as the mayor of Dhaka South City Corporation after a court verdict. 

There is also the issue of the July Charter. 

The National Consensus Commission (NCC) Chairman Professor Ali Riaz has also said the upcoming election will be guided by the July Charter. 

CA Yunus has said the charter will set the future course of Bangladesh, highlighting its significance

The NCP has often used the July Charter as a basis for some of its demands, including the ban on the AL. The ban finally came through an executive order on 12 May.  

But what will be in the charter is still being discussed. 

The Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has demanded a nationwide referendum to finalise the proposed July Charter, arguing that such an important national document requires legal and popular legitimacy through public endorsement.

The BNP, too, has some objections, such as equating the July 2024 Uprising with the events of the 1971 Liberation War – which the NCP wants. 

For such a charter, a referendum is crucial, but this is not an easy task.

Holding a referendum requires full preparation akin to holding national polls.

The charter will be a tricky issue to navigate, but currently, the future depends on it.

Another issue is the current state of politics. Constant roadblocks and protests by different political parties have had an effect on voters, with many wondering who really is a good option. Major parties are also at loggerheads with each other. 

In the past few days, the BNP and NCP have also called for the resignation of six advisers. The calls came centring the constant blockades by the parties' supporters, which have also impacted the interim government's ability to function regularly, disrupting regular processes.

Then there is the growth in mob violence. When the law and order situation deteriorates, it becomes harder to envision free, fair and inclusive polls.

Which brings up yet another issue: if the polls are to be free, fair and inclusive, can it be done without the inclusion of the Awami League? 

The Human Rights Watch (HRW) today (22 May) raised concerns over the interim government's decision to ban the AL and suppress its activists. 

"After three weeks of protests in which around 1,400 people were killed, Sheikh Hasina's government was toppled on August 5, 2024. The interim government led by Yunus pledged to restore democratic principles and respect for human rights before holding a free and fair general election. The new government has taken several positive steps, but these recent measures are disappointing," the HRW report says.

It's also a question that many analysts have raised. 

But the roadblocks aren't only for elections. Even the business climate has suffered. 

Election to be an economic boost

While an investor summit has been held and many from home and abroad have been enticed, most investors say they will hold back until an elected government comes into place.  

Investors have also expressed how an uncertain political climate creates challenges.

"Bangladesh is currently under an interim government, and whenever I speak with businessmen, they tell me they are holding back on investment. They are waiting and observing to see how the situation unfolds," South Korean Ambassador to Dhaka Park Young-sik said at an event in February. 

"Anyway, political instability and uncertainty are causing problems for the host country [Bangladesh]. It is necessary to clear the political issues," he said.

In a survey conducted by the Economic Intelligence Bangladesh (EIB), a joint research publication by The Business Standard and DataSense, this was made further clear. 

A staggering 75% of leaders surveyed in December feared that political uncertainty, along with instability in law and order would pose the greatest risks for businesses in 2025. 

The survey was carried out in December 2024 before the interim government's Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus said the next national elections may be held at the end of 2025 or the first half of 2026.

Professor Dr Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), speaking at an event last month, also warned that investment in Bangladesh could face obstacles if the upcoming national election was not held within the promised timeframe. 

Therefore, the need of the hour is an election. But with demands deafening the EC, how ready is it to hold the polls?

What the EC is to do

The EC's current task is to create a fully-fleshed out roadmap. Even the task of an interim government is to hold polls.

What the current administration can do is take a leaf out of ex-chief election commissioner ATM Shamsul Huda's playbook.

As the CEC, Huda had first stated in April 2007 that the elections would need to be pushed back by at least 18 months. But the next day, then chief adviser Fakhrul Ahmed said elections would be held by the end of 2008. 

Huda, in July the same year, unveiled an electoral road map announcing elections would be held by 2008 and a voter list with photographs – for the first time – could be completed by that time, alongside all electoral reforms. 

The general elections were successfully conducted on 29 December 2008 and were widely regarded as free and fair, marking a significant milestone in Bangladesh's return to democratic governance.

The current EC can also opt for making such a clear roadmap to dispel any sort of doubt or uncertainty. 

Now, as mentioned earlier, the NCP has called for local government polls to be held. Jamaat has also asked for the same. 

The BNP, however, is rigid, this won't be acceptable.  

According to Article 119 of the Constitution, the functions of the Election Commission are clear.

It says: "(1) The superintendence, direction and control of the preparation of the electoral rolls for elections to the office of President and to Parliament and the conduct of such elections shall vest in the Election Commission, which shall, in accordance with this Constitution and any other law –
(a) hold elections to the office of President;
(b) hold elections of members of Parliament;
(c) delimit the constituencies for the purpose of elections to Parliament; and
(d) prepare electoral rolls for the purpose of elections to the office of President and to Parliament.]

(2) The Election Commission shall perform such functions, in addition to those specified in the foregoing clauses, as may be prescribed by this Constitution or by any other law."

This means, the EC's first, foremost and specified constitutional duty now is to hold the parliamentary election. 

The local elections are in sub-article 2, where it is noted as, "in addition to those specified duties."

Moreover, the history of giving priority to local government elections over parliamentary polls tells a different story. 

Military dictators had both used local government bodies to consolidate their power at the grassroots.