Tasks for next govt: Break market cartel, create database to contain price hikes

Prices continue to rise while people's real incomes are shrinking, pushing more households to the brink of poverty. 2025 having ended amid a fresh uptick in inflation in December, trade analysts and political leaders alike see containing the price spiral as one of the most urgent and difficult challenges for the next government.

Representatives of major political parties contesting the February elections – BNP, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizen Party (NCP) – have stressed that the next government must dismantle market cartels, free up the supply chain and ensure consumers actually benefit from customs duty waivers on essential imports.

These views were shared at a citizens' dialogue jointly organised by Democracy International and The Business Standard at the TBS office yesterday. Funded by UK International Development, the roundtable was moderated by TBS Executive Editor Shakhawat Liton.

Highlights: TBS

Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (Research) at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said that sustained high inflation over the past three to four years has reduced real incomes, directly affecting poverty, health, education, and nutrition.

He observed that because inflation has exceeded wage growth, Bangladeshi households are, on average, losing real income, thereby narrowing opportunities for social mobility.

He said recent surveys indicate a rise in poverty. Questioning the effectiveness of the central bank's contractionary monetary policy, he said high interest rates are hurting investment and employment, making inflation control even more difficult in the long run. Without job growth, it will be impossible for people to withstand inflationary pressure.

Towfiqul Islam Khan also expressed concern over deficiencies in the use of data.

"Weak policymaking is resulting from the lack of updated and reliable production and supply data. Delays in obtaining production data – particularly for staple foods such as rice – are preventing the government from making timely preparations," he said.

Ferdaus Ara Begum, Chief Executive Officer of Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD), said Bangladesh has been experiencing high inflation for an extended period, with the pace of reduction extremely slow.

She cited Sri Lanka and Pakistan as examples of countries that have managed to exit high inflation more rapidly.

"Although expanding social safety programmes is often discussed, ensuring budgetary capacity, financing sources, and accurate targeting of beneficiaries remains a major challenge," she noted.

Mahmuda Habiba, a member of the BNP media cell, said the new government will face a major challenge in controlling prices as Ramadan begins immediately after the election. Taking this reality into account, the BNP has already prepared a coordinated action plan, emphasising collaboration among the commerce ministry, Bangladesh Bank, NBR, the Tariff Commission, and other relevant agencies.

"Prices rise due to middlemen and syndicates once products reach the market. There is no alternative to political decisions and the use of political authority to address this issue. Without dismantling syndicates, increasing imports alone will not bring relief to consumers," she noted.

Highlighting plans for union-based procurement centres and mapping-based agricultural production systems, Mahmuda said that even partial implementation could bring significant economic change.

At the event, Mardia Mumtaz, a Jamaat member, said that according to Bangladesh Competition Commission data, more than 1,500 active syndicates currently operate in the country, controlling everything from purchasing produce from farmers to retail prices in the capital.

She said Jamaat-e-Islami would take a firm stance against syndicates if it comes to power, and would properly utilise existing "automatic stabilisers" such as OMS and TCB truck sales to stabilise the market, especially for the most affected poor populations.

She also outlined plans to include poor populations in various social protection programmes, including Food-Friendly Programme, Test Relief (TR), VGF, and fisheries assistance schemes.

She stressed the importance of creating a unified database to ensure effective implementation of these programmes.

Humayra Noor, Joint Member Secretary of the National Citizen Party (NCP), said her party plans to introduce market buffering operations, align imports with agricultural production, and enforce strict monitoring and accountability-based licensing systems.

Commodity price control, she noted, affects not only the economy but the entire social system.

"Although laws exist, enforcement and market monitoring are weak. If the NCP comes to power, it will ensure legal coordination and oversight in controlling imports and prices of goods, including mobile phones," she added.

Abul Hasan Rubel, General Secretary of Ganosamhati Andolon, said early data collection and identifying alternative sources are crucial to reducing crises and inflation related to imported goods. Citing onion and LPG shortages, he said timely planning and monitoring could significantly mitigate such crises.

He said Bangladesh's storage infrastructure needs improvement. Increasing cold storage facilities and promoting agro-based industrialisation could reduce crop wastage and help stabilise production and prices.

Former Chhatra Union President Sharifuzzaman Sharif said the current market system has fallen under predatory capitalism, where demand–supply principles no longer function properly, rendering the free market ineffective. In this situation, alternative government preparedness and market control mechanisms are absent.

He argued that an effective rationing system should operate at the ward level and extend beyond Dhaka to rural areas, ensuring people can access essential goods according to need at designated times.

Presenting the findings of a public opinion survey conducted by Democracy International in November, the organisation's Deputy Chief of Party, Aminul Ehsan, said at the dialogue that one-third of voters in Bangladesh remain undecided and have not yet determined whom they will vote for.

He said that to attract this large segment of voters, political parties must present clear positions and plans on public concerns, particularly on controlling commodity prices.

"This dissatisfaction among women and young people is a major reason behind the high number of undecided voters and carries an important message for electoral politics," he noted.

At the event, Doulot Akter Mala, President of the Economic Reporters' Forum, said that although the government has repeatedly reduced taxes on essential commodities in recent years, these reductions have not been reflected in market prices. She said that when a 5% tax exemption is granted, 4% is retained by traders, while only 1% reaches consumers.

Citing inconsistencies in VAT and pricing in the edible oil market, she said many companies report lower value addition to the NBR to reduce VAT, while showing higher value addition to the Tariff Commission to raise the maximum retail price (MRP).

"This practice harms government revenue and places additional price pressure on consumers," she said.