Major unrest in Bangladesh unlikely after 12 February polls: Report

Major political unrest in Bangladesh is unlikely in the coming months after the 12 February general election, though the risk of disruption remains if promised reforms are delayed, according to an analysis by the Security Intelligence and Analysis Service by Dragonfly, a geopolitical and security intelligence provider.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party secured a two-thirds majority in parliament, winning 209 of 277 seats according to the official count, and formed a government on 17 February.

An 11-party alliance led by Jamaat-e-Islami obtained 77 seats.

The alliance includes influential partners such as the student-led National Citizen Party, which won six seats.

According to the report, Jamaat-e-Islami captured over 30% of the vote, marking its strongest electoral performance to date.

Recent statements by leaders of the 11-party coalition suggest it is prepared to assume the role of opposition, reports Dragonfly.

AHM Hamidur Rahman Azad, assistant secretary general of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, said on 15 February that the party would "play a constructive role" in parliament.

Lawmakers from the alliance have since been sworn in.

Although the alliance is seeking recounts in 32 seats over alleged irregularities, local reports indicate this is aimed at securing additional seats rather than overturning the overall result.

The outcome was not close and the legitimacy of the vote appears largely unchallenged. As a result, the civil unrest risk rating for Bangladesh has been lowered from severe to high.

Limited protests possible

Despite the acceptance of the results, sporadic protests in major cities remain probable in the coming weeks.

On 16 February, a few thousand people attended a protest organised by Jamaat-e-Islami in Dhaka over allegations of post-election violence, disrupting road travel for several hours.

Local media reports suggest further demonstrations may take place in the coming weeks, reports Dragonfly.

Such protests are unlikely to result in widespread violence.

They are assessed to be intended to test the government's tolerance for anti-government activism and influence its governance agenda.

The opposition has also formed a shadow cabinet to scrutinise government decision-making.

The report states, security forces would likely use limited crowd-control measures, such as tear gas and water cannon, to disperse protests near the prime minister's residence or other key government buildings if deemed necessary.

Governance reform delays seen as key trigger

The principal trigger for heightened unrest in 2026 would be delays in implementing governance reforms.

Alongside the general election, more than 62% of voters backed a referendum calling for the implementation of the "July Charter", a package of 84 proposals including 47 constitutional amendments aimed at restructuring the governance system. Among the proposals are measures to limit the powers of the prime minister and create a 100-member upper house of parliament.

However, there are early indications that the BNP may be reluctant to implement certain provisions in their current form, reports Dragonfly.

On 17 February, its lawmakers unanimously declined to join a proposed Constitutional Reform Council that would spearhead the reforms. Following criticism on social media, the party's standing committee member, Salahuddin Ahmed stated that the BNP intends to implement the July Charter "exactly as it was signed" in 2025.

Scepticism remains, given the party's previous objections to elements of the reform package, including the proposed method of forming the upper house, which it argued could dilute large parliamentary majorities.

Should there be delays or reversals, Jamaat-e-Islami would very probably launch a large and intense protest campaign.

Failure to deliver the reforms could also provoke the National Citizen Party, formed by students who ousted the Awami League government in 2024, reports Dragonfly.

At a press conference on 19 February, its leaders alleged that the BNP had colluded with India and the Awami League, laying the groundwork for potential resistance.

Other potential triggers for anti-government activism include reports that the BNP is softening its demand for the extradition of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina from India, and opposition allegations that the party is impeding ongoing trials at the International Crimes Tribunal against Awami League leaders such as Obaidul Quader.

High risk of violence if protests intensify

Any large-scale and disruptive protest campaign would carry a high likelihood of violence, reflecting established patterns of political unrest in Bangladesh.

There have been similar incidents before, including clashes in Dhaka's Mirpur area during voting on 12 February.

These incidents have typically involved bladed weapons, crude bombs and small firearms, primarily targeting party members and offices.

In addition to the risk of forceful dispersal by authorities, clashes between rival party supporters remain likely in Dhaka and other cities where major parties maintain strong grassroots networks, adds the report.