How early warnings help reduce landslide risks in Chattogram's hill areas

Highlights

• Heavy rainfall forecasts trigger early alerts
• Volunteers warn families door to door
• Mobile phones deliver 38% of alerts
• Miking and local leaders deliver 62%
• Marma, Chakma messages reach ethnic communities
• Tk5,000 helps vulnerable families relocate
• Project covers 30,000 vulnerable households
• 120,450 people brought under warning network
• 87.1% households now practise early action
• 93.3% beneficiaries trust and follow warnings

For nearly two decades, Abdul Karim's family lived atop a steep 110-foot hill in Thandachhari of Naikhongchhari, Bandarban.

On 24 August last year, after days of heavy rain, part of the hill collapsed onto their home, burying Karim's eight-month-old nephew, Mohammad Yusuf, under mud and debris.

"We did not know continuous rain could trigger landslides," Karim recalled.

A smaller collapse had damaged part of the house the night before. Hours later, a larger section came down while Yusuf was sleeping.

"The soil broke through the house and buried him under the collapsed structure," Karim told The Business Standard.

Family members rescued the infant alive, though he suffered head injuries.

Since then, the family no longer stays home during prolonged rainfall.

"Whenever volunteers or the local union parishad share landslide warnings issued by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, we move to safe spaces," Karim said.

His experience reflects a growing threat across Bangladesh's southeastern hills, where extreme rainfall, deforestation and unplanned development have made settlements on slopes and foothills increasingly unsafe.

A study by Chittagong University's Department of Geography and Environmental Science estimates that at least 10 lakh people in Chattogram, Cox's Bazar, Bandarban, Rangamati and Khagrachhari live in such vulnerable areas.

Researchers at the department say around 400 people have died in landslides in the region over the past two decades, including more than 250 during the catastrophic events of 2007 and 2017.

Iqbal Sarwar, a professor at the department, said changing rainfall patterns linked to climate change have worsened the threat.

"Continuous extreme rainfall, destruction of hill forests and various development activities have increased landslide risks in the Chattogram region over the last three decades," he said.

From weather forecast to evacuation

For years, many remote hill communities received little or no warning before disaster struck.

Since April 2024, however, a project funded by the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations has been working to change that reality.

Implemented by Young Power in Social Action (YPSA) and ASHIKA with support from Save the Children and technical assistance from the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System , the initiative covers three landslide-prone wards of Chattogram city – Ward 7 in West Sholoshahar, Ward 9 in Pahartali and Ward 14 in Lalkhan Bazar – as well as vulnerable communities in Banshkhali upazila and Lama and Naikhongchhari upazilas in Bandarban.

The system combines weather forecasting, community volunteers, local disaster management committees, multilingual communication networks and anticipatory cash assistance to help communities act before disasters occur.

BMD Director Md Momenul Islam said the department has been issuing landslide warnings for nearly three years based on forecasts of heavy rainfall, one of the main triggers of landslides in the region.

"Previously, those warnings were published mainly on our website and circulated among government offices. But people living in remote hill areas, who are among the most vulnerable, often could not access them," he said.

He added that trained volunteers and local disaster management committees are now taking the warnings to remote communities.

Volunteers become first responders

In Chattogram city alone, around 2,00,000 people live on risky hill slopes and foothills across the three wards covered by the project, according to project officials.

Abdur Rahman Jihad, programme officer at YPSA, said awareness was extremely low when the initiative began, while ward-level disaster management committees were largely inactive.

The project first focused on community awareness and volunteer training. Now, volunteers go door to door whenever heavy rainfall alerts are issued.

According to Save the Children, 38% of residents receive early warnings through mobile phones, while the remaining 62% are reached through miking, religious institutions, city corporation announcements, karbaris, headmen and volunteers in areas with poor network coverage.

Monowara Begum, a volunteer from Mia Pahar in Chattogram city's Jalalabad area, said behaviour has changed significantly.

"Now people are much more aware. Once they receive warnings, they leave their homes and move to safe places," she said.

Jihad said a July 2023 pilot showed the value of the approach. After residents of Mia Pahar in Raufabad were evacuated following an early warning, a landslide struck two houses. No casualties were reported as residents had already moved to safety.

He said the success of the pilot encouraged similar interventions in other landslide-prone communities.

Reaching remote ethnic communities

Delivering warnings in remote hill settlements remains more challenging than in urban areas, particularly because many residents in Lama and Naikhongchhari do not understand Bangla.

To address this, ASHIKA developed a multilingual warning system using interpreter pools and traditional community leaders known as karbaris and headmen.

Lakepara in Naikhongchhari is one of the settlements now covered by the network. Twenty-two Marma families live on a vulnerable hill there.

Whenever landslide warnings are issued, local disaster management committees send voice messages in Chakma and Marma languages, while karbaris and headmen help coordinate evacuation and other early actions.

Residents then move to schools, religious institutions or relatives' homes until conditions improve.

"Each para now has its own disaster management committee and interpreter pool formed with local community members," said Ukaya Haing Marma, programme officer at ASHIKA.

In areas with weak mobile coverage, warnings are often delivered through volunteers, religious institutions and traditional community leaders rather than digital platforms.

Cash before disaster strikes

The initiative does not stop at warning communities.

Under the programme, vulnerable families receive Tk5,000 in anticipatory cash support when early warnings prompt them to relocate before a potential disaster.

Project officials said the support helps families cover immediate expenses linked to evacuation and temporary relocation.

Priority is given to families living in landslide-prone locations, persons with disabilities, female-headed households and families that have previously lost members to landslides.

The beneficiaries are selected through an approved assessment process and endorsed by local union parishad and upazilaauthorities.

According to ASHIKA, the approach has also produced economic benefits.

"Anticipatory cash support demonstrated a benefit-cost ratio of around 1:15," said Jihad.

That means every Tk1 invested generated approximately Tk15 in avoided losses and economic benefits, he added.

A model for future climate adaptation

Project officials say the initiative could offer a practical model for reducing disaster risks in Bangladesh's landslide-prone hill regions.

Now nearing completion, the project combines weather forecasting, local governance, community preparedness and social protection to help communities act before disasters strike.

Fatema Meherunnesa, anticipatory action manager at Save the Children, said the initiative has reached around 30,000 households, covering about 120,450 beneficiaries.

She said 87.1% of covered households now practise early action, while 93.3% of beneficiaries trust early warnings and take steps accordingly.

Fatema said the long-term goal is to develop a National Early Action Protocol for landslide risk management linked to shock-responsive social protection and nature-based solutions.

For families like Abdul Karim's, however, the value is simpler.

Before the landslide that nearly killed his infant nephew, heavy rain was part of life in the hills. Now, when alerts come, Karim and his family leave home and move to safer places.

The hills around them have not become less fragile. But advance warnings now give them something they did not have before: time.