Extreme weather drives global food price hike, worsening health risks: Study

A study was published today, revealing that climate change-driven extreme weather events are severely disrupting global food production, triggering record-breaking price surges and heightening health risks for vulnerable peoples including Bangladesh. 

The research was led by Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, and supported by leading institutions including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, ICREA, ECIU, the European Central Bank, University of Aberdeen, and The Food Foundation.

The findings come days ahead of the UN Food Systems Summit Stocktake on 27 July. 

Analyzing 16 extreme weather events across 18 countries between 2022 and 2024, the researchers found that heatwaves, droughts, and flooding pushed food prices well beyond pre-2020 records.

In the UK, potato prices surged 22% in early 2024 due to excessive winter rainfall — an event made 10 times more likely by climate change. Meanwhile, the US states of California and Arizona saw vegetable prices spike 80% in late 2022 after a severe summer drought.

In Ethiopia, a catastrophic drought — the Horn of Africa's worst in 40 years — led to a 40% rise in food prices in March 2023. Scientists say climate change made the event 100 times more likely. 

Similar weather extremes caused a 50% jump in olive oil prices in Spain and Italy, a 280% surge in cocoa prices from Ivory Coast and Ghana, and doubled Robusta coffee prices in Vietnam by mid-2024.

India faced over 80% increases in potato and onion prices after a heatwave in May 2024, while Japan, South Korea, and Mexico also recorded major food price spikes due to extreme heat or drought. In Pakistan, catastrophic monsoon flooding in 2022 resulted in a 50% rise in rural food prices.

Meanwhile the World Bank published a report in April this year and said, Bangladesh has been placed in the 'red' category for food inflation risk. The country has remained in this category for nearly two years. Basically, countries with inflation rates between 5% and 30% are classified as red by the World Bank.

Bangladesh has been experiencing high inflation for almost three years, with food inflation particularly elevated over the past year. For ten consecutive months, food inflation remained above 10%. It dropped below 10% in February, but since March 2024, food inflation has not returned to single digits.

Low- and fixed-income peoples have not faced such prolonged hardship before. In July 2024, food inflation rose to 14.10%, the highest in the past 13 years. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the average food inflation from April 2024 to March 2025 was 10.44%.

The ripple effects of rising prices are stark. The Food Foundation reports that healthy foods are already twice as expensive per calorie as less nutritious options. As a result, many low-income families are forced to reduce fresh produce consumption, increasing their exposure to diet-related diseases such as diabetes, heart disease, and cancer.

"Until we achieve net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only intensify," said Kotz. 

"It's already damaging crops and driving up food costs across the globe. People are noticing — rising food prices are now the second most visible climate impact after extreme heat."

Amber Sawyer of ECIU added, "In just two years, climate extremes added £360 to the average UK household's food bill. For farmers, this crisis isn't theoretical — they're facing it daily, with record heat, floods, and failed harvests."

The Earth has already warmed by 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. Without urgent emissions cuts, the world is on track to reach 3°C — a level experts warn would be catastrophic. With 2023 the hottest year ever recorded — now surpassed by 2024 — scientists expect 2025 to follow suit, cementing climate change's deepening grip on food security worldwide.