Bangladesh, South Asian countries face rising heat risk as El Nino strengthens: GHHIN

Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Bhutan are facing growing risks from extreme heat as an unprecedented El Nino strengthens, with new assessments calling for stronger health surveillance, local action and dedicated funding to protect vulnerable communities.

The four countries are also moving towards greater regional cooperation on heat and health, according to four country assessments released today (8 October) by the Global Heat Health Information Network (GHHIN) South Asia Hub at the Global Heat Forum in New Delhi, a press release reads.

The assessments found that all four countries have made progress in developing heat action plans, forecasts and early-warning systems, but gaps remain in turning these measures into protection on the ground.

Health surveillance, local funding and the integration of heat risks into health, labour and urban planning need to be strengthened, the assessments said.

In Bangladesh, feels-like temperatures, which combine temperature and humidity, have risen by around 4.5°C since 1980, according to the World Bank. Nearly one-third of the year now brings dangerous humid heat.

Bangladesh has included heat in its national adaptation plan, developed its first city heat action plan in Narayanganj and introduced a national guideline on heat-related illness alongside a public "B.E.A.T. the Heat" campaign.

The assessment recommended dedicated heat action plans at both national and sub-national levels and a heat-health surveillance system linking weather forecasts with hospital data.

India has made the most progress in the region, according to the assessment. More than 250 city and district heat action plans are in place, while heatwaves have been recognised as a notified natural disaster under the country's disaster risk management funding system.

India has also established national surveillance for heat-related illness and trained more than 18,000 medical officers. The assessment recommended moving heat action beyond disaster management by providing dedicated funding and incorporating health outcomes into heat action plans.

Nepal, meanwhile, is facing increasing heat risks despite being a Himalayan country that has traditionally been more exposed to hazards such as floods and droughts.

The southern Terai plains recorded 50 days with temperatures above 40°C in 2024, according to Nepal's national meteorological department. The country has issued its first federal heat plan and introduced tiered heat alerts, but heat-related illnesses are not yet systematically recorded by the health system.

The assessment called for mandatory recording of heat-related hospital admissions in Terai hospitals and stronger mechanisms to turn weather warnings into local action.

In Bhutan, rising temperatures in the southern lowlands are exposing communities to heat conditions they have not historically had to prepare for.

The country has assigned heat-related responsibilities to its health ministry, while a 2022 regulation includes heat protections for workers. Its existing flood and glacial-lake early-warning systems could also provide a foundation for developing heat warnings, the assessment said.

It recommended bringing the country's existing measures together under a single national heat action plan.

"Extreme heat is now a year-round, regional risk in South Asia, and these assessments show the region is not starting from zero," said Dr Vishwas Chitale, Fellow at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and chair of the GHHIN South Asia Hub.

"The task now is to connect those forecasts to health systems, local budgets and labour rules, so that a warning reliably becomes protection," he said.

Dr Farzana Misha of the BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health said heat was among the region's most under-recognised health risks and could affect health, work and food security.

She said Bangladesh had begun responding through its national guideline on heat-related illness and heat action plans, but similar measures were needed across South Asia.

The GHHIN South Asia Hub is hosted in New Delhi by CEEW, with Sustainable Futures Collaborative, the Natural Resources Defense Council, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific as partners.

Following the Global Heat Forum, the hub plans to develop a regional network of institutions and training programmes and produce pre- and post-heat-season briefings for governments in the four countries.