Fuel imports up 14%, costs jump 29% – so why the shortage?

Highlights:

• Fuel imports rose 13.66%, costs surged 28.82% in FY26
• Shortages persist despite higher imports amid Middle East tensions
• Bangladesh imported 57.4 lakh tonnes fuel July–March FY26
• Diesel imports and per-tonne costs increased sharply year-on-year
• Experts question unusual cost spike, call for audit
• Mismanagement, hoarding suspected behind shortages despite adequate supply

In the searing heat of April, hundreds of vehicles queue outside filling stations across the country – a stark picture of a fuel crisis unfolding on the ground. But the numbers tell a different story. In the first nine months of the current fiscal year, fuel imports rose by 13.66% and the import bill surged by an even sharper 28.82%.

Despite the higher inflow, shortages have persisted since early March after conflict in the Middle East escalated, raising fresh questions about how the supply system is being managed.

Data from the Chattogram Custom House show Bangladesh imported 57.4 lakh tonnes of fuel between July and March of FY26, compared with 50.5 lakh tonnes in the same period a year earlier. The basket includes diesel, crude oil, furnace oil, petrol, octane, jet fuel and base oil.

The import value stood at Tk43,733.58 crore. With duties and taxes of Tk9,686.63 crore, total expenditure reached Tk53,420.21 crore – up from Tk41,667.69 crore a year earlier. That means the government paid an additional Tk11,752.52 crore for a relatively modest increase in volume of 6,89,969 tonnes.

Infograph: TBS

What drove the increase

The state-run Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) imported 26.87 lakh tonnes of diesel, 16.02 lakh tonnes of crude oil, and 11.26 lakh tonnes of furnace oil during the period. Imports of petrol and octane, jet fuel and base oil also rose, while furnace oil declined.

Diesel imports alone increased by nearly 6,00,000 tonnes year-on-year. Crude oil imports were also significantly higher, while furnace oil fell by more than 3,00,000 tonnes.

Per-tonne import costs also climbed. Diesel cost Tk1,02,796 per tonne on average in FY26, up from Tk88,442 in FY25 – an increase of over Tk14,000. Other fuels saw similar per-tonne cost increases.

Analysts say the mismatch between volume and cost points to higher global prices and rising import expenses. But the scale of the increase has raised eyebrows.

Energy expert M Tamim said both the jump in consumption and the surge in costs appear unusual. "An additional nearly 6,00,000 tonnes of diesel use in just nine months is difficult to explain. The government should look into it," he told TBS.

He added that fuel prices remained largely stable for most of the period. "Apart from March, prices did not change much. So, a 28% increase in cost is not very clear."

Questions over cost spike

Majare Khorshed Alam, former general manager of Eastern Refinery Limited, also flagged the gap. "If imports have increased by around 13%, then a 28% rise in costs seems somewhat abnormal," he said.

He called for an independent audit. "If there has been any irregularity or corruption, it should be identified. And if the rise is due to mismanagement, corrective steps must be taken to bring costs to a tolerable level."

Khorshed noted that global crude prices were relatively stable between January 2025 and January 2026 – hovering around $81-82 per barrel – before rising later amid geopolitical tensions. "So the basis of such a large cost increase is not clear," he added.

Supply crunch despite higher imports

Even as imports increased, fuel shortages began appearing across the country from early March. Long queues formed at filling stations, and some outlets temporarily ran dry.

Experts say the problem lies less in imports and more in distribution.

Although BPC handles procurement, distribution is managed through three state-owned companies – Padma Oil Company, Meghna Petroleum Limited, and Jamuna Oil Company – which supply dealers nationwide.

Data suggest an unusual surge in fuel release just before the shortage emerged. Between 28 February and 6 March, the three companies together allocated around 25,000 tonnes of diesel per day – nearly double the usual demand for 12,000-13,000 tonnes.

In just seven days, about 1,75,000 tonnes were supplied, far exceeding the expected 84,000 tonnes. That is equivalent to roughly 16 days' worth of normal consumption being released within a week.

Officials said each company typically sells around 3,665-4,000 tonnes per day. But during that period, daily sales at each company rose to around 8,000 tonnes.

A senior official at Jamuna Oil, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the episode as clear mismanagement, questioning where such large volumes went in such a short time. He said, "Usually there is no cap on how much fuel the companies can sell daily. But, the authorities should have been more cautious when large quantities of fuel were being sold for days."

After the issue reached the energy ministry, daily allocations were scaled back to around 3,700 tonnes.

Hoarding feared

Experts suspect a large portion of the excess supply may have been hoarded.

"If 1,75,000 tonnes were sold in a week, dealers may have stockpiled a significant amount," said Tamim, adding that authorities should also examine whether any fuel was smuggled out.

Khorshed echoed similar concerns. He said pump owners and distributors often stockpile fuel expecting future price hikes. "Recent government drives have already uncovered several cases of excessive hoarding."

This kind of behaviour fuels panic and creates the perception of a shortage, he said, adding that authorities are trying to stabilise the situation, though lapses may have occurred.

Attempts to contact BPC Director (Operations) AK Mohammad Shamsul Ahsan and Director (Marketing) Md Sabet Ali for comments on the issue went unanswered.

Bigger picture

Bangladesh's annual fuel demand is around 72 lakh tonnes, with more than 92% met through imports by BPC. A portion of crude oil – about 15 lakh tonnes – is refined domestically by Eastern Refinery Limited.

The numbers do not point to a shortage of imports. Instead, they suggest gaps in monitoring, distribution and cost control.

Analysts say without tighter oversight and better coordination among agencies, such disruptions could recur – even when supply remains adequate on paper.