Economic growth slows to 3.03% in Q2 of FY26

Bangladesh's overall economic growth slowed to 3.03% in the second quarter (October-December) of the 2025-26 fiscal year, down from 3.53% in the same period last year, according to data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) on Monday (6 April).

Growth had been comparatively stronger in the first quarter, reaching 4.96%, up from 3.91% a year earlier. At current prices, the country's GDP rose to Tk1,517,600 crore in Q2, from Tk1,390,100 crore in Q2 FY2024-25, indicating that the overall economy continues to expand despite a slowdown in growth momentum.

Sectoral performance

Agriculture sector maintained positive momentum, growing 3.68% in Q2, up from 1.90% a year earlier. In the first quarter, agriculture posted 2.11% growth, improving from a negative 0.12% last year.

The industrial sector experienced a sharp slowdown, with growth dropping to 1.27% in Q2, compared to 5.78% a year earlier. This followed a stronger first quarter growth of 6.82%, highlighting the uneven trajectory of industrial performance.

The service sector remained relatively stable, growing 4.45% in Q2, slightly up from 3.48% last year, and maintaining similar growth in Q1 at 4.51%.

Despite strong contributions from agriculture and services, the slowdown in industry weighed heavily on overall GDP growth. Experts say boosting investment, ensuring energy supply, and recovering global demand will be critical to reviving industrial momentum.

Impact of political and economic factors

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development, attributed the slowdown in formal sectors to political and social instability during the pre-election period.

He noted that the second quarter coincided with the election season, when worker strikes and political unrest created a tense social and political environment.

"As a result, growth in formal sectors such as manufacturing and industry nearly bottomed out, recording just 1.27%," Mujeri said. "In contrast, informal sectors like agriculture and services managed to maintain relatively stable production trends. Production activity in formal sectors was significantly affected during this period."

He further warned that growth could slow in the coming quarters due to the ongoing Middle East crisis, rising fuel and food prices, and higher global market costs, which have increased production expenses. Reduced garment exports and shortages of diesel, water, and chemical fertilizers are also affecting output.

"In agriculture, farmers did not receive fair prices. Potato prices have fallen by almost half, and production costs for other crops were not fully covered. The government must ensure supportive measures so farmers can continue production. Without timely action, growth, employment, and public welfare could suffer," he said.