Bangladesh’s cyclone resilience faces new test amid US aid cuts

Highlights:

• US aid cuts threaten early warning systems
• NGOs face severe funding shortages
• Global foreign aid to Asia on the decline

Bangladesh's battle against natural disasters has always leaned heavily on timely warnings that save thousands of lives every year from the ravages of storms and floods. But now, that lifeline may be fraying.

A decision by US President Donald Trump to slash foreign aid spending is raising alarms far beyond Washington.

The Economist, in its latest issue, warns that these cuts may undermine critical early warning systems in Asia, including Bangladesh.

At risk is SERVIR, a low-cost but highly effective programme run by USAID in partnership with Nasa. For years, SERVIR has helped countries predict and prepare for climate-related disasters by providing real-time satellite data. 

In Bangladesh, where millions live at the mercy of nature's whims, this data often makes the difference between life and death.

The Economist says, "Natural disasters may hit harder, too." And in a region where resilience often hangs by a thread, losing access to SERVIR's data could be a heavy blow.

"In 2023 the early-warning system alerted people in Bangladesh to a category-four cyclone, which limited the death toll to 145 people. Two decades earlier, a similar storm killed 138,000 people," notes The Economist.

In 2023, Bangladesh faced three severe cyclones – Mocha, Hamoon, and Midhili. Of these, Cyclone Mocha was the fiercest, with wind speeds reaching 248 km per hour. Yet, casualties remained remarkably low compared to similar storms in the 1990s and 2000s.

According to Dr Muhammad Abul Kalam Mallik, a meteorologist at the Storm Warning Centre of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the recent decision by the United States to cut aid will not affect Bangladesh's weather forecasting or early warning systems. 

"We have strong collaborations with countries like Norway, Japan, Denmark, Korea, and China, which keep our forecasting systems well-supported," he said.

However, Dr Mallik stressed the critical role of USAID-funded NGOs in community outreach. 

"These organisations reach the remotest areas, raise awareness about the severity of cyclones, and help people evacuate to safe shelters," he said. 

"That's why, even though Bangladesh faced a super cyclone last year, the casualty numbers remained very low."

The US aid cuts have already impacted dozens of NGOs in Bangladesh. Icddr,b alone has slashed over 1,000 jobs while funding for Rohingya refugees has dropped significantly.

The Economist notes that foreign aid to Asia was already on a downward trend even before Donald Trump returned to power. Thanks to sustained economic growth across the region, development assistance has become less significant. In 2023, Asia received $53 billion in foreign aid, amounting to just 0.2% of its collective gross national income (GNI) – a sharp decline from 0.7% in 1993, and far lower than Africa's 2.4%.

Yet, with the latest cuts to USAID under the Trump administration, coupled with reduced commitments from Britain and other European donors, even this modest aid flow is under threat. 

The consequences, The Economist warns, could be severe – weakening the region's safety nets and limiting the ability of policymakers to respond to crises.

Nowhere is the impact more acute than in Afghanistan. War-ravaged and heavily dependent on foreign aid, nearly half of its 46 million people rely on international assistance for survival, according to the United Nations. 

In 2023 alone, Afghanistan received $2.4 billion in aid – roughly 20% of its GNI. Half of that funding came from America, largely directed toward humanitarian relief and healthcare. But with much of it now frozen, the country is reeling. Schools and health clinics have closed, and the UN's food agency estimates that around 35 lakh million Afghan children are at risk of malnutrition this year – 500,000 more than in 2024.